Tectonic shift in the government's plan

fon
Posts: 713
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

Matt Hancock was badly burned last week having admitted he's booked his own holiday while Grant Schapps was telling us it's far too uncertain for us to book our holidays.

They were both deeply embarrassed when Charles Walker made multiple media appearances castigating the pair and the whole direction of the go-slow policy. We can be certain the message from the deputy leader of the 1922 committee was a direct hit, thoroughly undermining Dan Rosenfield's frantic deals to patch up the rift between the back benchers and the government.

So Hancock and Co have made an instant reverse ferret, as we always knew they must, once they ran out of road. And they ran out of road last week, once the most vulnerable groups had all been vaccinated. People had started to ask "what was the point when we still have lockdown"?

Boris is desperate to have this rift healed in one week, before he lays out his roadmap for quitting lockdown. It's clear now they will fix the rift with the 1922 committee by agreeing to accelerate out of lockdown, once the schools are open.

Some emergency back peddling on the message has been necessary to condition the public mood for a swifter than planned move out of lockdown.Charles Walker has won, SAGE has been routed. Hence, in a sudden update , the message has changed and now they say the virus is like the flu, and we can live with it after all. Matt Hancock used the Daily Telegraph to signal the change.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -end-year/

Along with a torrent of optimistic, lesser "news" to pad it out:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... nts-could/

The BBC has been the government's mouthpiece all through the Pandemic, when the government sent the message, e.g. Stay Home Save the NHS, the BBC loyally
blasted it out over the airwaves for months. Sure enough, it's a tectonic shift of position,so as night follows day, the trusted BBC trots out two stories on the same theme in one day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56050119

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56047489

There will be no push for Zero Covid, Devi Sridhar confirms it in a tweet that I see this more like measles than flu. A vaccine helps us move towards a measles model. Eliminated largely in rich countries with continual flare-ups requiring outbreak response; continual struggle in poor countries. The battle is over, she lost, and she's retreated to her backstop, a permanent measles-type maintenance regime.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/ ... 8201113601

fon
Posts: 713
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

If you wonder who the hell Dan Rosenfield is, well, he's the new Dominic Cummings. And it's his job to make life easy for the PM by doing deals with political allies and foes, from what I know, he's a very smooth operator who uses diplomacy before force, so he's different from Cummings, he's more amenable, not such an idealist, and definitely not an enfant terrible. Dan will be much more tractable wrt lockdown, he's well grounded and actively searches things to trade off, he does not like to make unnecessary enemies. It will be difficult for SAGE to push past him and, nor being an architect of lockdown, he will not be afraid to overrule SAGE even when Boris is. I have high hopes for Dan.

loa453
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Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:58 pm

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by loa453 »

Fingers crossed, sir. It all does feel a bit up in the air, both sides are making their final plays and ploys. I imagine there'll be concessions made to both sides - the lockdown lobby will be granted continued masks, group size limits, no large events, etc. The unlock crowd will be given non-essential shops, schools, limited hospitality.

We're so deep in this hole that even miles of generously granted freedom isn't close to the Old Normal.

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:53 pm
Some emergency back peddling on the message has been necessary to condition the public mood for a swifter than planned move out of lockdown.Charles Walker has won, SAGE has been routed. Hence, in a sudden update , the message has changed and now they say the virus is like the flu, and we can live with it after all. Matt Hancock used the Daily Telegraph to signal the change.
It's no change at all.
He "hopes" we "may" be able to live with it like Flu "by the end of the year".
That's ominous on its own.

We already have vaccines.
We have large scale natural immunity
We have better treatments

Nothing else is going to happen between now and the end of the year to change that so why the delay?

Into October we'll be into the seasonal Winter spike so it'll be lockdown to "protect the NHS" again.

If anything this shows quite clearly they have zero intention of allowing a return to normal even after the vulnerable are vaccinated.

Marlin
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Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:45 pm

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Marlin »

While I retain a healthy dose of skepticism, this is the most uplifting thing I've seen all year.

CoronanationStreet
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:03 pm

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by CoronanationStreet »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:03 am
fon wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:53 pm
Some emergency back peddling on the message has been necessary to condition the public mood for a swifter than planned move out of lockdown.Charles Walker has won, SAGE has been routed. Hence, in a sudden update , the message has changed and now they say the virus is like the flu, and we can live with it after all. Matt Hancock used the Daily Telegraph to signal the change.
It's no change at all.
He "hopes" we "may" be able to live with it like Flu "by the end of the year".
That's ominous on its own.

We already have vaccines.
We have large scale natural immunity
We have better treatments

Nothing else is going to happen between now and the end of the year to change that so why the delay?

Into October we'll be into the seasonal Winter spike so it'll be lockdown to "protect the NHS" again.

If anything this shows quite clearly they have zero intention of allowing a return to normal even after the vulnerable are vaccinated.
I tend to agree. It's all in the language used. I know they govt has forced its own position and can only use cautious words but there's no re-opening unless it's a full re-opening, not just a temporary state before the next inevitable lockdown is talked about. And there's just no indication a full re-opening will ever occur.

If, considering where we are now, Hancock is still talking about lockdowns from the Autumn onwards then he needs to be sacked and they need to get somone else in who will better prepare the NHS for the next respiratory virus season.

Richard789
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Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Richard789 »

There are certainly some hopeful signs - and we are greatly in debt to the MPs who are piling the pressure on Boris. They are the ones standing up for liberty.

There is however a worrying mantra doing the rounds, "Nobody is protected until everybody is protected". The implication is that everyone should get vaccinated before we are allowed out - a monumental shifting of the goalposts away from simply making sure the NHS is not overwhelmed.

So we need to say, at every opportunity, that "Nobody is protected until everybody is protected" is flat-out false. Once you have had your vaccine, you are protected even if your neighbour is not. It is true that universal protection increases individual protection a bit: if you are one of the unlucky ones for whom the jab does not work, you are a bit safer if hardly anyone gets the virus. But the great bulk of the protection comes from you having the jab, regardless of who else has had it.

So I see "Nobody unless everybody" as a medical lie, put about to concoct a political argument for collectivism.

fon
Posts: 713
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

CoronanationStreet wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:41 am
Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:03 am
If, considering where we are now, Hancock is still talking about lockdowns from the Autumn onwards
No he is not. He says we can live with covid19, as we live with flu.
Marlin wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:02 am While I retain a healthy dose of skepticism, this is the most uplifting thing I've seen all year.
Yes, some people are so battered by dismal confinement they have lost the ability to feel optimism. Perhaps they were never prone to optimism in the first place. But it's mid February, the darkest days of winter are nearly over, and it's hard not to be faintly optimistic. T4 is not much cop, but it's a better than full lockdown an a step in the right direction. Since December we have only made steps in the wrong direction. Lest any zealots forget how long they have been suffocating the nation, the Mail has installed a lockdown count in it's mast head, today saying LOCKDOWN DAY 328.

I'm hoping Labour will seize the chance to steal some of the growing optimism, that must burgeon as Spring confinement morphs into a Summer of reducing lockdown. In anycase, it will be harder and harder for either party to fight against a growing flood of good news. Labour are down in the polls versus the Tories due to the vaccination bonus,so it looks like "harder, sooner, longer, deeper" may not be a popular slogan for the May 6th elections, while Get Lockdown Lifted might be considerably more popular then.

Some sceptics will be horrified but even Tony Blair is tentatively coming out against lockdown, blaming it for a huge bill for future generations to pay. It means postponing the treatment of other conditions like heart disease and cancer; and a deterioration of mental health. Blair thinks it is a choice of mass vaccination or mass lockdown, and we've had mass vaccination. Blair is putting all his eggs in one basket: documentary evidence of vaccination status, as a way to restart international travel and trade. In a move that will terrify our Ernst Stavro Blofeld conspiracy theorists, Mr Blair is teaming up with the World Economic Forum and the African Union to get this done. Keir Starmer is a keen Blairite. The socialists of the world are looking for ways out of lockdown.

jmc
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Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 am

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by jmc »

I see absolutely no change. Its the same random walk from one rake to another. Always stepped on, always smashing the government in the face. Leaving it startled and disorientated. To walk off in another direction. Towards another rake.

Now an actual competent government (i.e deeply cynical and manipulative ) would have one plan and one plan only. Roll out the vaccine as fast as possible to give plausible deniability and at the same time incrementally change the testing and reporting criteria so the the RT/PCR tests are wound down and the official statistics only start recording those with active SARs CoV 2 infection that have been confirmed by at least two of the other clinical criteria used before March 2020. At the same time ramping up Influenza and HCOV, RSV etc testing of all symptomatic infections so that all the case that are being classified as COVID at the moment starting being classified under under categories. Only test for SARs CoV 2 after the other tests have been done.

Thats how you get COVID "under control". You keep moving the goal posts until the problem goes away. Just changing the RT/PCR testing criteria back to the pre March 2020 one would on its own make 70%/80% of the "cases" go away. Testing for other antigens first would get rid of most of the rest. Given the flexible classifications used for Hospital Acquired Pneumonias at least half the remaining COVID cases could be made go away.

Problem solved in about 6 to 8 weeks. And no further surges because the new diagnostic and testing procedures would keep a COVID diagnosis at the very end of the decision chain.

That how a competent government would make the current COVID catastrophe go away. This has always been a purely political problem and can be made go away using very typical political machinations and slights of hand. As used by every even half-way competent government.

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

Richard789 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:24 am There is however a worrying mantra doing the rounds, "Nobody is protected until everybody is protected". The implication is that everyone should get vaccinated before we are allowed out - a monumental shifting of the goalposts away from simply making sure the NHS is not overwhelmed.
... and they mean the world there. Its more zero covid utter nonsense.
So we need to say, at every opportunity, that "Nobody is protected until everybody is protected" is flat-out false. Once you have had your vaccine, you are protected even if your neighbour is not.
Its not even that. Healthy people under 50 are already protected.
Anyone that's HAD covid is already protected.

The people at risk are protected from covid once they've been vaccinated against covid. And that's it. That's all that needs to happen.

Its just another sign the government is too terrified to EVER lift lockdown.

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