Tectonic shift in the government's plan

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

Richard789 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:24 am There is however a worrying mantra doing the rounds, "Nobody is protected until everybody is protected". The implication is that everyone should get vaccinated before we are allowed out - a monumental shifting of the goalposts away from simply making sure the NHS is not overwhelmed.
... and they mean the world there. Its more zero covid utter nonsense.
I google that, and I get seven results, none since Jan. So if that is doing the rounds, they are small rounds going very slow! Part of the problem is fake news. I someone googles it today, they will find an extra hit - your post! Those who use this phrase are trying to raise the uptake of the vaccine. That's it, since end of lockdown depends on vaccination rate, unless vaccination works, lockdown stays. That's the bottom line.

Splatt
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

Lockdown isnt related to vaccination.
They've started that multiple times. Those goalposts moved a while ago.

Don't forget the UKs main vaccine is one complete ineffective against a variant now found in 60+ countries and a home-grown one with the same mutation.
So people using Oxford will need another vaccine. So lockdown stays until then.
After that they can start working on handling the next mutant.

The goalposts have already moved on from "once the vulnerable are vaccinated". They've even gone on from "Once people who aren't affected by SARs2 are vaccinated".
Now its "Yes but variants".

They're actively looking for reasons to keep lockdown rather than reasons to lift it.

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:34 pm Lockdown isnt related to vaccination.
They've started that multiple times. Those goalposts moved a while ago.
That's plain wrong. We knew yesterday (see below) the goalpost is to live with covid19, managed like flu with vaccine. That is the goalposst Matt Hanson told of yesterday. Between now and then we have lockdown AND vaccination, hence Lockdown is related to vaccinationsince we have both, whatever you may have thought, you have to try to keep up.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -end-year/

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:34 pm Lockdown isnt related to vaccination.
Let's put that hare-brained idea to sleep with immediate effect. Lockdown IS related to vaccination. Since either or even both can be used to try to control infection. So there is a relationship of some kind, presently we use Lockdown AND vaccination.

The use of both together is worse than the use of either alone. So the government is messaging yesterday and today, in preparation for the press conference tomorrow, that ONE will be ditched, and it will not be vaccination, that's for sure.
ineffective against a variant now found in 60+ countries
do not forget, cases are plunging.That is all you need to worry about, please leave the thinking to me.
The goalposts have already moved on.
Yesterday's are the newest goal posts, Splatt, they say the virus is like the flu, and we can live with it after all. Matt Hancock used the Daily Telegraph to signal the change.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -end-year/

So there no new goal posts.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by MikeAustin »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:07 pm
Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:34 pm Lockdown isnt related to vaccination.
They've started that multiple times. Those goalposts moved a while ago.
That's plain wrong. We knew yesterday (see below) the goalpost is to live with covid19, managed like flu with vaccine. That is the goalposst Matt Hanson told of yesterday. Between now and then we have lockdown AND vaccination, hence Lockdown is related to vaccinationsince we have both, whatever you may have thought, you have to try to keep up.
The relationship between them is hope and despair applied to the ongoing situation, AKA moving goalposts. The government have continuously bandied around hope and despair like psyops. They say one thing then another. It fatigues, debilitates and enables compliance.

Splatt
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:07 pm That's plain wrong. We knew yesterday (see below) the goalpost is to live with covid19, managed like flu with vaccine.
Again rubbish.

"hope" and "by end of year".
With several talking already of autumn restrictions.

Absolutely nothing new happens between now and "end of year" except that even WITH vaccinations there's a refusal to end this until at least the end of the year.
They WANT at least another 10 months of this and are planning so.

If vaccinations and lockdown were linked, the second groups 1-9 have been done every single restriction would end and they'd have announced that plan already.
The fact they haven't proves they have no intention at all of doing so.

Case levels are meaningless. There will always be variants and they'll emerge more rapidly the more vaccinations are done.

jmc
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by jmc »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:36 pm
Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:34 pm Lockdown isnt related to vaccination.
Let's put that hare-brained idea to sleep with immediate effect. Lockdown IS related to vaccination. Since either or even both can be used to try to control infection. So there is a relationship of some kind, presently we use Lockdown AND vaccination.

The use of both together is worse than the use of either alone. So the government is messaging yesterday and today, in preparation for the press conference tomorrow, that ONE will be ditched, and it will not be vaccination, that's for sure.
ineffective against a variant now found in 60+ countries
do not forget, cases are plunging.That is all you need to worry about, please leave the thinking to me.
The goalposts have already moved on.
Yesterday's are the newest goal posts, Splatt, they say the virus is like the flu, and we can live with it after all. Matt Hancock used the Daily Telegraph to signal the change.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -end-year/

So there no new goal posts.
What we have above is the little more than the patronizing twaddle of someone who has provided amble evidence in this and other threads that they have no actual relevant expertise or insights , no actual ability to do even the most basic background or primary sources research on the subjects being discussed, and who repeats ad nauseam statements which have no basis in fact. Someone who seem to have massive delusions of competence. Possible off the scale for the Dunning Kruger Effect.

That article you are so excited about is just a puff piece very deliberately placed in the Telegraph. Thats all. You do know how the British media works, dont you? One of the SPAD's had the idea for the article placement and in coordination with the PM's office had it placed.

The Telegraph may have been pretty reliable back in the Berry and Black years but under the Barclay Brothers it has been all over the place. A shadow of its former self. Often little more than a sad joke in its pretensions to its (well earned) former glory. An article like the Hancock piece might have meant something back in the Thatcher/Major years but nowadays means little more than one of the Corbyn puff pieces in the Guardian of a few years ago. The political importance and half-life of everything in that article can be measured in hours/days.

The current insane policies looks like they will only end when the current government leadership has been changed. The Tories tend to be very good at backstabbing in these situations and once you remember that key fact then Boris's erratic policy dance makes perfect sense. The best way of watching your back is to consonantly pirouette.

Splatt
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:36 pm So there no new goal posts.
- Flatten the curve protect the NHS
- OMG deaths
- OMG cases
- Back to normality by spring
- Vaccines are the way out of this
- Even after vaccines don't book a holiday
- "Hope" to "live with it like flu" by "maybe end of the year".

The world's most active goalposts. Covered more distance than Mo Farah in a training month.

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

loa453 wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:47 pm Fingers crossed, sir.
It's work in progress but it has lurch a few inches in the way we want it to go,
It all does feel a bit up in the air, both sides are making their final plays and ploys. I imagine there'll be concessions made to both sides - the lockdown lobby will be granted continued masks, group size limits, no large events, etc. The unlock crowd will be given non-essential shops, schools, limited hospitality.

We're so deep in this hole that even miles of generously granted freedom isn't close to the Old Normal.
It's a ways short of new normal too, and it's a workable plan for now. Keep pushing.

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift and a torrent of optimism

Post by fon »

Tim Spector has been optimistic on the Sophie Ridge show again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P-XczUK1CQ

We are seeing a torrent of optimism from all directions.

The Zoe app is showing cases falling since 1st Jan, with
R consistently below 1.Prevalence of covid19 has dropped 80% where it was in October.
He predicts in 2 week it will be as it was in May and June with Prevalence< 1:500.

He wants to govt. to reduce restrictions, put small kids back to school.In the NHS there is a 60% drop in admissions, and in Wales a 50% fall in inpatients. Tim thinks there are some rural regions where they can open earlier than 8th March. He think there may be grounds for some caution, e.g. low level restrictions e.g. face masks at big pubic gathering until even next year.

He thinks they should be a cautious retreat, to check how vaccines work esp. wrt variants but we will need to get back to normal wrt. vast majority of social life, economic, education life.
Tim thinks we are going to drive the level of the virus really low. He reported on vaccines
Vaccines have few side effects, and realtime vaccine data after 2 week 46% less risk, after 3 weeks 67% times less risk. Time thinks we will be in a much better place 2 to 4 weeks times and that vaccines will knock the virus on the head over the whole country shortly. The gamble to use a single shot is definitely paying off, Zoe app data shows. Tim says it is not productive to test asymptomatic people; much better to base tests on symptoms.

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