Tim Spector has been optimistic on the Sophie Ridge show again.
We are seeing a torrent of optimism from all directions.
The Zoe app is showing cases falling since 1st Jan, with
R consistently below 1.Prevalence of covid19 has dropped 80% where it was in October.
He predicts in 2 week it will be as it was in May and June with Prevalence< 1:500.
He wants to govt. to reduce restrictions, put small kids back to school.In the NHS there is a 60% drop in admissions, and in Wales a 50% fall in inpatients. Tim thinks there are some rural regions where they can open earlier than 8th March. He think there may be grounds for some caution, e.g. low level restrictions e.g. face masks at big pubic gathering until even next year.
He thinks they should be a cautious retreat, to check how vaccines work esp. wrt variants but we will need to get back to normal wrt. vast majority of social life, economic, education life.
Tim thinks we are going to drive the level of the virus really low. He reported on vaccines
Vaccines have few side effects, and realtime vaccine data after 2 week 46% less risk, after 3 weeks 67% times less risk. Time thinks we will be in a much better place 2 to 4 weeks times and that vaccines will knock the virus on the head over the whole country shortly. The gamble to use a single shot is definitely paying off, Zoe app data shows. Tim says it is not productive to test asymptomatic people; much better to base tests on symptoms.