Tectonic shift in the government's plan

[MikeAustin]

I would suspect that next years flu season will be especially deadly.
2 years of it being suppressed, natural cross-immunity being suppressed in vulnerable people and so on.
Traditionally after a quiet flu season the next one is more deadly as it takes out those that would normally have gone the previous year.

Likely to see far more respiratory viruses as well for the same reason.

Someone might have to "save the nhs" yet again. Because covid will rise up then to go with that.

Having masked-up this summer, I would have expected this season's flu to have been deadly. Do you think that some of the 'covid-19 deaths' were, shall we say, 'confused' with seasonal flu?

And, if not, because covid-19 was the predator at the front of the pack, would those who successfully ran away from it not also be fit enough to run away from lesser predators? (Yes, I know this is all very unscientific, but I'm sure you get my drift!)

[Splatt]

Having masked-up this summer, I would have expected this season's flu to have been deadly. Do you think that some of the 'covid-19 deaths' were, shall we say, 'confused' with seasonal flu?

No. No chance at all. Simply isnt possible with the diagostics.

Quite simply the measures forced on the population to control SARs2 were far more effective at controlling the lower transmissible Flu virus.
All the routine surveillance has shown it basically didnt exist this year at all.

NPIs are always going to be more effective against lower R0 viruses than higher (assuming the same mechanisms of transmission). Things like 2m distance and likely hand hygiene (shown as good for stopping flu, worthless for SARs2) knocked flu out totally (and most other respiratory viruses).

The measures that looking at global data have done nothing at all for SARs2 were far far better at suppressing influenza.

Yes some people who caught SARs2 and died would otherwise have died from Flu (or anything else) this year but its not mistake diagnosis.

But from next year if we ever get out of this government forced insanity we're going to have a large number of very susceptible people "spared" the last 2 years Flu and other viruses who will likely die.
Cross/partial immunity plays an important role in disease severity along with spread and the last 2 years would have knocked that protection right back for a large number of people globally.

[MikeAustin]

Blair is putting all his eggs in one basket: documentary evidence of vaccination status, as a way to restart international travel and trade.

I was looking for a mention of Tony Blair and vaccinations to drop a chart of his funding by the Gates Foundation, via the "Tony Blair Institute for Global Change." It seems a couple of golden eggs were laid in his basket in 2019/2020 (Figures obtained here):

gates-to-blair.jpg (34.81 KiB) Viewed 153 times

Gates and Blair seem to have teamed up in a timely manner for recent events.

[fon]

It's been a really good day for the sceptics. The tectonic rifts are widening by the hour.
Now there is a new three pronged crack in the government facade, which started in the Science and Technology commons committee today.

• The source of one of the cracks is SAGE prof, Mark Woolhouse, who has put a ladder of splinter cracks in the facade, on top of Devi Sridhars' and Fregies' surrenders yesterday!
  • first splinter : no cases could be traced to crowded beaches, that's a big fat zero
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... beach.html
  • second splinter:told MPs the vaccine data is so good that it points to lockdown ending earlier
    https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/covid- ... 22599.html
  • third splinter: no surges after schools open in Europe
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-n ... s-19859031
• At the same time another great crack at the base was opened when Sir John Bell Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, told MPs on the Science and Technology Committee today,that people want to get back to a 'relatively normal way of life' and steps need to be taken to allow that.
  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... warns.html
• a third great crack occurred at 17:00, when Devi formally killed off her Zero-covid campaign, renaming it endemic at low levels, a desperate rearguard action: https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/ ... 1591457794

It's been a really good day for the sceptics, the case for delay is looking tatty.

[Splatt]

...and you're forgetting the actual leaked plan that shows even by July we can expect only "semi return to normal" in the same way last summer was.
Also mentioning the scientifically impossible 1000 cases a day.

The roadmap shows clearly that "normal" isnt even on the list of things to do at all.

So in another half a YEAR we can be in the same position in terms of restrictions we were a year ago. Possibly worse if we still have travel bans.

This isnt data driven. No data is being looked at. Its ideological and driven by Boris' absolute terror.

[fon]

btw: Devi Sridhar she is a bit thick, big mouthed, and opinionated, but apart from that,she's beautiful, well spoken and I can see why people believe in her, but it's all bluff and bluster. She's not even a scientist in the normal sense, she only has a qualification in anthropology!

Anyway, this is what she says in her update to her article of surrender yesterday
https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/ ... 1591457794

Whether we call it 'low endemicity' (endemic at low levels), max suppression, 'elimination strategy', or Zero Covid- the name doesn't matter. It's about getting to low prevalence & keeping it there. Lower the numbers -> more freedom/less restrictions/fewer mutations we will have.

Can you see what she is doing? Niel Ferguson is hiding is the exact same last redoubt.they are afraid to be tied to Zero Covid because she knows the concept is sinking like a stone. She realised that scientists who follow the wrong theory are forgotten, who knows (for example) the fellas who backed
Phlogiston, ? nobody does because they were totally wrong.

So Devi is putting some distance between her and "Zero Covid", and now backing the right theory, what we all know to be correct, that the virus is endemic and will remain endemic. But she's still fighting a rearguard action. calling it low endemicity, hoping the change hides her stupidity. It's just another white flag, Zero covid is not just over in all but name, it's even over in name!

[Splatt]

Whether we call it 'low endemicity' (endemic at low levels), max suppression, 'elimination strategy', or Zero Covid- the name doesn't matter. It's about getting to low prevalence & keeping it there. Lower the numbers -> more freedom/less restrictions/fewer mutations we will have.

That is the "zero covid" nonsense. Cycles of never-ending restrictions to keep an endemic virus below an arbitrary threshold and a constant refusal to live with it.
She's just rebranded.

More worryingly is how a person with a 2 year accelerate biology degree and no qualifications in epidemiology or virology has so much influence, especially in Scotland.

[fon]

leaked plan

Oh alas, look, they do leak these things on purpose, Splatt. It's the biggest convulsion since the war, so it's not going to be gone in a flash. The data is looking good.

[Splatt]

Oh alas, look, they do leak these things on purpose, Splatt. It's the biggest convulsion since the war, so it's not going to be gone in a flash. The data is looking good.

It was leaked by pub bosses who were absolutely furious after meetings with ministers.

The data is irrelevant. Boris has already said data is irrelevant. We've moved on from data. Its now arbitrary cases and "undefined" criteria.

[fon]

Oh look another crack in the government's case, again started by a scientist, Prof Dame Angela McLean, the chief scientific adviser at the Ministry of Defence, who says We do need to decide what level is acceptable, and then we can manage our lives with that in mind.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... overnment/

It was at the same meeting that Mark Woolhouse, said it would be wrong to attempt to get Covid cases to zero (btw: So now we know what prompted Devi Sridhar to shut up, since Mark Woolhouse is professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, Devi's university.)

Woolhouse added:"If you take the view that no Covid death is acceptable or something of that order, you are writing a blank cheque to do any amount of harm by the measures you have implemented to try and control it," he said, but added that the current data was pointing to "earlier unlocking". SAGE are doing the sceptics' work for us!