Tectonic shift in the government's plan

CoronanationStreet
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by CoronanationStreet »

Splatt is clearly correct on this, the Honey Monster and ministers are looking for reasons not to lift the lockdown, or to make it so difficult on the basis they will have *new* data (from the next LFT mass testing programme) to justify not doing so.

It's all about saving face. The govt knows it has blood on its hands given the number of covid related deaths and would rather punish the British public for longer than do a full and proper risk/cost/benefit assessment of each and every restriction currently in place in each setting that it applies.

Unless they do that, how can they claim to be guided by the data? I nearly lost it and swore here.

I was pleased to hear Prof Anthony Brookes on the radio this morning stating quite clearly the govt's new approach is nonsense due to various reasons including testing being carried out in non-clinical settings, the fact that it will inevitably result in the 1,000 cases per day never being possible and the fact that covid related deaths will inevitably spiral if labelling all deaths within 28 days of a positive test as a covid death approach continues.

These are all points which people here have made repeatedly since before Christmas.

Why is this not getting through to govt if it says it is taking a data based approach?

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MikeAustin
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by MikeAustin »

CoronanationStreet wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:38 am I was pleased to hear Prof Anthony Brookes on the radio this morning stating quite clearly the govt's new approach is nonsense due to various reasons including testing being carried out in non-clinical settings, the fact that it will inevitably result in the 1,000 cases per day never being possible and the fact that covid related deaths will inevitably spiral if labelling all deaths within 28 days of a positive test as a covid death approach continues.
I welcome the government's 1,000 cases per day target. Why? The more obviously stupid their policies are, the more likely people are to question.
Eventually, even the sheep will start to question. Once that questioning begins, it will escalate - like the murmuration of starlings. Confidence and security will be eroded and the whole farce falls apart.
It is a playing out of reductio ad absurdum.

Health Seeker
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Health Seeker »

The disciples of religions often become more fanatical than their founders. And more literal minded. True believers in Zero Covid believe Zero Covid can do what it says on the tin. Zero Covid is now the state religion. Whatever doubts apparently influential individuals may express in their more rational moments, government ministers cannot become rationalists anymore than their counterparts in Iran could renounce Islam.

Splatt
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Re: writing a blank cheque to do any amount of harm by the measures

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:47 am Oh look another crack in the government's case, again started by a scientist, Prof Dame Angela McLean, the chief scientific adviser at the Ministry of Defence, who says We do need to decide what level is acceptable, and then we can manage our lives with that in mind.
Hardly, its agreeing with never ending rolling restrictions.

They "manage" peoples freedoms and lives based around an arbitrary figure (which can change on a whim).
She's arguing FOR permanent restrictions.

No other disease in history do we adjust peoples lives and freedoms to keep levels at an arbitrarily determined figure indefinitely.

Yet again they have this mission creep and obsession with cases.

Very easy to see where it goes from here.....
Bad Flu season? Lets "manage our lives" to keep it below a level.
Huge winter pressures in NHS? Lets "Manage our lives" to keep it below a level.

The only "management" should be critical healthcare capacity and they should be managed by planning and upgrading.

Splatt
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

MikeAustin wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:55 am I welcome the government's 1,000 cases per day target. Why? The more obviously stupid their policies are, the more likely people are to question.
Eventually, even the sheep will start to question. Once that questioning begins, it will escalate - like the murmuration of starlings. Confidence and security will be eroded and the whole farce falls apart.
It is a playing out of reductio ad absurdum.
Interesting thread here:
https://twitter.com/Fauvistfauvist1/sta ... 1038590978

Suggesting that each country seems to have a natural plateau of cases below which is near impossible to drive down further without brutal restrictions (and rises back to it after that event).

This is kind of what you'd expect once population equilibrium is established. Its exactly what you'd expect from a fully endemic virus as well.

Its related to the way testing is performed and number of tests as well as the FPR provides a hard floor below which data is meaningless.

Its suggested in the UK with the current rates of testing that's roughly 10,000 "cases" a day.

Im not sure people WILL question the unobtainable 1,000. SPI-B has done a very good job terrifying enough people that they'll always go for the "just one more push. a few more weeks to defeat this virus" nonsense.

They don't need to convince the majority, just enough of the minority to cause debate.

In the UK we cant get 1000 a day until we reduce testing by 80% or so.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by MikeAustin »

Splatt wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:04 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:55 am Eventually, even the sheep will start to question. Once that questioning begins, it will escalate - like the murmuration of starlings.
Im not sure people WILL question the unobtainable 1,000. SPI-B has done a very good job terrifying enough people that they'll always go for the "just one more push. a few more weeks to defeat this virus" nonsense.

They don't need to convince the majority, just enough of the minority to cause debate.
Even in a murmuration of starlings, a few tend to lead and more tend to follow. Once the balance starts to swing towards questioning, even those that don't question will start parrotting the questions.

Then one asks, what on earth are parrots doing in a starling murmuration?

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

Another day, another scientist pops up to say go faster:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... es-johnson

Before Mr Pessimism pipes up: you know Splatt, there's a trend here. A definite trend. Realism seems to be submerging pessimism ... just saying, even the Guardian is piping up FFS!

Splatt
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

Voice of realism.

Why are you refusing to accept the fact that the elected government has stated multiple times it has NO intention of a return to normality for a very long time, if ever?

We have direct quotes off ministers stating they do NOT feel vaccination is the way out.
We have Boris' 5 month plan to "some sort of normality" that doesn't start until April.

There is not a single elected official NOT person off SAGE advocating a return to normality in any time frame at all. Not one.

Advisors say no normal. Government say no normal.

"End outside sport ban" is not a return to normal. We have a lot more restrictions than "Oh damn i cant do outside sport".

What is likely to happen is Boris is going to announce at least 5 more months of restrictions tomorrow and dress this up as "Every adult can have half a vaccine by July. So one more big push. We can do this". Again.

fon
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:54 pm Voice of realism.

Why are you refusing to accept the fact that the elected government has stated multiple times it has NO intention of a return to normality for a very long time, if ever?
Because why would I gainsay the king of pessimism, Neil Ferguson, when even he says We’re not going to eliminate Covid globally so we won’t eliminate it here, I would like to see this virus become like influenza and managed in similar ways”. I won't argue with that, it's what I think. Zero covid is toast, thank God, even Devi Sridhar gets that

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ollow-flu/

But they are fighting a desperate rearguard action to go slow while they back out. So we know how the game will end, but we do not know exactly when, perhaps we'll have a slightly better idea tomorrow. instead of (longer, harder, tougher), the headlines now scream (speed it up, faster, reopen, holidays,end the bans, hope, alfresco april, ), everybody is suddenly a lockdown sceptic now, Splatt. The public's appetite has been whetted, and a week is a longtime in politics!

Splatt
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Re: Tectonic shift in the government's plan

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:43 pm Because why would I gainsay the king of pessimism, Neil Ferguson, when even he says We’re not going to eliminate Covid globally so we won’t eliminate it here, I would like to see this virus become like influenza and managed in similar ways”. I won't argue with that, it's what I think. Zero covid is toast, thank God, even Devi Sridhar gets that
*Managed*

They're arguing as is their zero-covid nonsense for open ended, rolling restrictions to meet arbitrary figures.

You really seem to have lost all contact with reality and ignoring the very clear government and advisor statements. They have no intention of "normal".
Its entirely "manage" which is another way of saying lockdowns.
Absolutely no acceptable that we show just get on with life.

The situation has hardened into zero-covid nonsense in the last 6 weeks or so. We've left "vaccinate the vulnerable" behind forever.

Tomorrow we'll have a tiny tiny lifting of restrictions hidden under the "but do this now and everyone will have been stabbed by July" cover.

Then in July we'll have "..until they get the second dose".
That'll take us up to "just this Oxford booster now for the variant" then neatly into the "Its a winter spike, protect the NHS Honest".
Then its spring 2022 and nothing has changed.

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