Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

bradw4
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:23 pm

Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by bradw4 »

It is now well-established that most of the deaths associated with Covid-19 occur in people with comorbidities. Not all, but a majority.

But the NHS and the media seldom distinguish between people dying 'with' Covid and people dying 'of' Covid.

In order to measure the true lethality of the disease, would it not be diagnostically helpful to compile a discrete database of deaths in which Covid was the principal cause? In which people died 'of' Covid?

Imagine if I had a mild case of the flu. On my way to the chemist to buy some medicine, I get hit by a bus and killed. Would influenza make an appearance on my death certificate? Maybe, but I doubt it.

But if I had Covid rather than the flu, Covid would likely receive a mention on my death certificate, bus or no bus. Plenty of stories in the press support this assumption.

So, before the onset of this pandemic, what was the protocol in the NHS when people died of influenza or pneumonia? Were they also liberally attributed causes of death, or did a more narrow approach to classification prevail?

Can anyone with experience in this field provide the answer?

Splatt
Posts: 1089
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by Splatt »

There are 2 metrics for death with this in the UK.

First is the infamous "any cause within 28 days of a positive test" which the news love.

The other are the real ones the ONS based on death certificates and causes.

Very basically a death cert has a primary cause and contributory cause section.
You would think this more accurate except they made it much easer to die "of" covid than anything else by changing the rules.

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk ... rded-.html

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the ... al-scandal goes into the changes

...and thats without the numerous proven claims of COVID being put down on a certificate as its "quicker" and can avoid a post-mortem etc.

Sir Gus
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Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:25 pm

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by Sir Gus »

The main thing that aroused my scepticism very early on was two cases I heard of (in my professional capacity) of care facilities being instructed to classify all deaths as Covid, howsoever caused and with no test and no PM.

What, I thought, would be the reasoning behind that?

Given that generally one would assume that governments try to make bad news seem better than it actually is, why would they do this?

It's a good question...

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by Splatt »

I know directly of 2 cases here.

The why is firstly it avoids the need for and time delay in a PM - that bit is skipped for "suspected covid". Family get a funeral far sooner, no 2-3 week wait for a PM etc.

Secondly its just easier - doesnt require a 2nd opinion or even a medically trained person to turn up with all the paperwork involved.

So "death by covid" streamlines the whole system. All thanks to the rule changes quietly introduced.

fon
Posts: 713
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by fon »

bradw4 wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:21 am true lethality of the disease, would it not be diagnostically helpful to compile a discrete database of deaths in which Covid was the principal cause? In which people died 'of' Covid?
For many reasons, I think it is absolutely essential to
  1. establish what standard information is necessary in each case
  2. determine reliable ways to create, collect and store the information
  3. a central national database would be the right basis for the record keeping
  4. allow general access for research and legal purposes
  5. make it a crime to knowingly enter false or misleading data or delete useful data
  6. make it a crime to fail to enter relevant data
  7. make it a crime to use the data or the structure of the data to hide other wrongdoing.
  8. make it a crime to misrepresent the contents of the database.
With that in place we could prevent much of the obvious malfeasance that has occured in the way data has been collected, handled and released. It would concentrate the minds of the perps if they knew they could wind up in jail.

Splatt
Posts: 1089
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by Splatt »

Making things "crimes" are pointless if the risk of getting caught or sanctioned are near zero.

Same with the PLF/Quarantine nonsense.

bradw4
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:23 pm

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by bradw4 »

It's baffling that so little media attention has been given to this specific issue.

Given that it's so easy to ascribe any death to Covid, it's obvious that the death toll will look inflated. And if there is a high death toll, the government will find it easier to continue with the restrictions.

But we wouldn't do this with cancer. It simply wouldn't inform our understanding of the disease.

A related question is: if the official Covid death toll is inflated, then what is the true Covid death toll?

Using the IFR, maybe it's possible to arrive at an estimate.

miahoneybee
Posts: 1050
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:26 pm

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by miahoneybee »

You would wonder why no pm as with any pm it's to find the actual cause of death not just taking someone's word for it ....I would have thought with all the ppe ect the rona would be studied in great detail to find a cure to stop all the bodies piling up in the streets ......??does that mean the ppe does not work then or would it prove the porky pies as to the true cause of death?? Food for thought.
:?:

rachel.c
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:32 pm

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by rachel.c »

bradw4 wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:35 pm It's baffling that so little media attention has been given to this specific issue.
Sadly our mainstream media are no longer interested in exposing the truth about the Covid death stats, let alone putting them into any perspective . A few brave medics eg Malcolm Kenrick have been trying to raise awareness but just get ignored or called "deniers".

Mike Yeadon
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:18 pm

Re: Covid death classification - Does this happen with flu?

Post by Mike Yeadon »

If they died of flu, I believe cause of death would be whatever actually killed you, which would be pneumonia or a cardiovascular event like heart attack. Flu would be on the death certificate as an underlying cause & if you’d been elderly & diabetic, fragility & comorbidity would also get mentioned.
A critical fact though is that you wouldn’t routinely even be tested for influenza by PCR. You’d be diagnosed completely clinically.

My objection to attribution of cause now is that this isn’t how it’s done. You still get the best symptomatic care, but everyone is repeatedly tested in hospital & this raises the aggregate risk of false positives.

Looking at the pneumonia deaths then, given this is a respiratory virus, I don’t think it’s possible to ‘die from’ it without inclusion of pulmonary/ respiratory signs & symptoms.

Yet regardless of clinical profile leading to death, if you’ve a positive test in the final 28d, you’ll have covid19 added to the death certificate because it’s currently bound to happen when following the newly introduced guidance last spring.

Now the rate of attribution of death to covid19 is in large measure a function of the operational false positive rate of the tests used & frequency of testing as well, of course, a function of true prevalence. I believe if we’d applied the rules we’ve used in cases of people dying while infected with flu, that is, basing most of the decision on clinical judgement, we’d have recorded far, far fewer deaths as being caused by covid19.

I’m well aware that the current rules end up with a “dying with covid” attribution but I believe that was a deliberate act, to amplify the numbers. The knock on impacts will last for years if not forever.
bradw4 wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:21 am It is now well-established that most of the deaths associated with Covid-19 occur in people with comorbidities. Not all, but a majority.

But the NHS and the media seldom distinguish between people dying 'with' Covid and people dying 'of' Covid.

In order to measure the true lethality of the disease, would it not be diagnostically helpful to compile a discrete database of deaths in which Covid was the principal cause? In which people died 'of' Covid?

Imagine if I had a mild case of the flu. On my way to the chemist to buy some medicine, I get hit by a bus and killed. Would influenza make an appearance on my death certificate? Maybe, but I doubt it.

But if I had Covid rather than the flu, Covid would likely receive a mention on my death certificate, bus or no bus. Plenty of stories in the press support this assumption.

So, before the onset of this pandemic, what was the protocol in the NHS when people died of influenza or pneumonia? Were they also liberally attributed causes of death, or did a more narrow approach to classification prevail?

Can anyone with experience in this field provide the answer?

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