ROADMAP

[fon]

OK, so let's look at these condition to move though the steps out.

1. vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently successfully
3. infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
4. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variant of concern

So it's all about the vaccinations preventing unsustainable pressure on the NHS. That's fair, we would not want to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS in any case, unlikely in summer, and no hideous Variant leaps up and blows the lid of the whole plan. I think I'll learn to live with this while double crossing my fingers, until we're through it.OK, so what about the time line?

Beer Gardens 12th April, a week later than I had hoped.
Pubs indoors, 17th May, a month later than I had hoped.
Virus Victory Day 21st June, we'll have a bloody big party on that day if it happens.

[FreedomofAssociation]

I read it the opposite way. I don't read 'we are giving you these freedoms gradually.' I read 'we will continue to suspend your civil liberties indefinitely, but we have a makebelieve timeline by which we intend to gradually give them back, contingently.' To which I reply, 'Actually, fat-arsed dictator, I don't respect a word of it. And, by the way, if you mean to pose so grandiosely, could you not at least bother to comb your hair, like the other fascists? The act doesn't work anymore.' If he sticks to the timeline, I'll eat my hat and everyone else's. I have a huge appetite for hat and have been starving for a year.

[thinksaboutit]

OK, so let's look at these condition to move though the steps out.

1. vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently successfully
3. infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
4. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variant of concern

So it's all about the vaccinations preventing unsustainable pressure on the NHS. That's fair, we would not want to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS in any case, unlikely in summer, and no hideous Variant leaps up and blows the lid of the whole plan. I think I'll learn to live with this while double crossing my fingers, until we're through it.OK, so what about the time line?

Beer Gardens 12th April, a week later than I had hoped.
Pubs indoors, 17th May, a month later than I had hoped.
Virus Victory Day 21st June, we'll have a bloody big party on that day if it happens.

I'd have enabled beer gardens before back garden socialising, as better for the hospitality sector as well as a more managed space.
To many, the back garden is the same as the conservatory, which is the same as inside the house.

There must be some chance of acceleration of the schedule if expected vaccine impact becomes apparent. Assuming take-up remains good, as I suspect it will.

[fon]

If he sticks to the timeline, I'll eat my hat and everyone else's. I have a huge appetite for hat and have been starving for a year.

Fair play to you, I think a surge in mid summer large enough to swamp the nhs is unlikely, hence his main get out of jail card are these bloody variants. There is nothing we can do but wait with bated breath hoping to hell no monster variant arises.

PS. I'll save my hat for you, could you eat it over zoom on (hopefully) 21 June.

[Richard789]

I certainly regard the timeline as too slow. And the fact that it is contingent is very worrying. If someone on SAGE sneezes, Boris will buckle and delay. I hope the MPs who care about freedom will tell him that the dates must be firm. If the NHS worries about whether they will be able to cope, they must sort it out themselves. And they must be told now that they must sort themselves out over the summer because there will be no social controls next winter.

The other worrying thing is that there was a hint of possible regional restrictions being re-introduced. If that is allowed, we could easily find ourselves back with restrictions covering half of the country. So here too, MPs must tell him, no way. No more lockdowns must mean no more lockdowns for anyone, anywhere in the country.

[FreedomofAssociation]

PS. I'll save my hat for you, could you eat it over zoom on (hopefully) 21 June.

Hope you wear a sombrero, fon.

Here's the thing. It's mistaken (and probably a form of Stockholm Syndrome) to credit one's captor for one's later-promised freedom, and it's folly to trust that captor. He's got us locked up! He's not our friend, God bless him!

[CoronanationStreet]

I certainly regard the timeline as too slow. And the fact that it is contingent is very worrying. If someone on SAGE sneezes, Boris will buckle and delay. I hope the MPs who care about freedom will tell him that the dates must be firm. If the NHS worries about whether they will be able to cope, they must sort it out themselves. And they must be told now that they must sort themselves out over the summer because there will be no social controls next winter.

The other worrying thing is that there was a hint of possible regional restrictions being re-introduced. If that is allowed, we could easily find ourselves back with restrictions covering half of the country. So here too, MPs must tell him, no way. No more lockdowns must mean no more lockdowns for anyone, anywhere in the country.

Well said

[fon]

So I was wondering why Devi Sridhar is so insistent in comparing the ongoing maintenance campaign against covid19 with measles instead of with flu. Here she is shit stirring again.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... perts-view

She surrendered last week in her battle for Zero covid, when it became clear that she was isolated. In the great round of horse trading that was done to draft the roadmap, even her ally Neil Ferguson, switched against Zero covd because he is smart enough to know it's impossible. The PM is on the telly right now driving more nails into the coffin of Zero covid. But Devi being Devi, with her thousands of Twitterati, she just can't let it go So she's building a last redout. Her rearguard action is to enjoin us to treat covid19 like measles not like flu.

So how do we treat the flu, well we don't stop the economy for the flu, we vaccinate the vulnerable. Perhaps that's her game. With measles we vaccinate the children en masse. The measles virus is very stable (I am told) so the vaccine doesn't change. A single jab does you for life. Measles is tremendously infectious (I am told), so nearly blanket vaccine take up is necessary to maintain herd immunity. This is the reason for the shit storm a few years back when Doctor Andrew Wakefield spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about vaccine dangers, causing vaccine takeup to fall to dangerous levels. A measles outbreak is treated very seriously, not like a flu outbreak, and measles vaccination is serious business that has to occur come hell or high water.

So that's how Devi wants us to treat Covid19. She wants near enough blanket vaccination, but since covid19 mutates quite frequently, we would need up to date booster shots periodically , like for flu, but Devi wants Covid19 vaccination uptake to be near enough universal as it is for measles, and should an outbreak occur, she wants to be able to interfere strongly, as we would with measles. So her real policy would be a sort of beefed up combination of the measles and flu campaigns.

[fon]

He's not our friend, God bless him!

I know. It's going to be like Ice Cold in Alex, waiting for that beer garden to open in 7 weeks on Apr 12. btw it's a monday.

[miahoneybee]

All.i think is what a clever f..g rona..clearly it wont attack one industry.. it will leave the hairdressers at risk for a few more weeks so best they dont open..then later the pubs ( but outside only..yeah right) ..it wont get you if you stay in these groups but god help you if additional numbers join your group..hold hands but don't kiss.. lastly ( if any survived ) the hospitality industry ( again outdoors) nightclubs in the street..hotel guests in beds on the pavement ..it gets more ridiculous by the 2nd..of course a few weeks down the line after the carrot has been eaten.. low and behold another variant and as doris " reserves the right" where do you think that will end.. I hope by that time more people say f..k you doris and co...