Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Mike Yeadon
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:18 pm

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by Mike Yeadon »

Yes, I read that, too. The author however provided no mechanism whereby a late spring peak would occur.
Of course, we had it then last year but isn’t the assumption there that this was the epidemic phase after injection of the pathogen into the population?
Now, we’re at the opposite end of an outbreak & multiple factors weigh against epidemic expansion. Natural @ vaccine induced immunity, seasonality born assist us.
Obviously if you believe it is lockdown wot dun it, sure, we’ll get a late spring peak!
rachel.c wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:09 am Viruses do what viruses do. The Swiss Doctor reminds us we could have a third wave in Europe quite soon. https://swprs.org/what-about-a-third-wave/
Then again we might not but anyone worried should get their Vit D levels checked IMHO.

Lady Grey
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:45 pm

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by Lady Grey »

Splatt wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:57 pm
Lady Grey wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:10 pm The Prime Minister is easing too quickly. Reading the road map each month too many activities will be allowed to happen. This is irresponsible especially as most of the population have not been vaccinated, mutant variants issue
He's glacially slow to the extent its irresponsible.

Once the restrictions gets eased everyone goes crazy like children in a fun fair. I remember the last time after the first lockdown was lifted everyone is going to pubs, restaurants and holidays etc.
Why not? Celebrating release for confinement. It's called "normal"
People should enjoy themselves but not overdo it.
Thats exactly what they should do. Embrace normal.
The infection rate will go up again and then the scientific advisers will recommend lockdown again. Remember the last time the events which led to second lockdown .
That's going to happen anyway. Its a seasonal endemic virus. Cases will rise again late summer into autumn depending on weather.

The only alternative is to literally never resume normal life. SARs2 isn't going to go away.
Splatt

Most of the population has Not been fully vaccinated. My grandmother is has not received the second dose of the vaccine and many people are still waiting for the second dose.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... h-55274833

If Britain was like isreal in which most of the population is fully vaccinated then easing restrictions is reasonable.

Easing restrictions when most people have not been fully vaccinated is an irresponsible decision for a Prime Minister to make. This is the worst decision the government has made since eat out to help out.

Its is ok for people enjoy themselves but people need to be responsible and not overdo it. British airways today have seen a rise holidays booked and this problem right there.
We are still in a pandemic, most of the world has not even been vaccinated now is not the time for travelling.

The decisions we make effect the wider community. Its takes just one or a few people get infected and then spread it. It is all connected

I believe in freedom but i also believe in responsibility too just because you can do something doesnt mean you should.

Most restrictions will be eased before my 24th birthday that makes me happy but I cant be fully happy knowing I am living on borrowed time.

Cant you see we are reliving the events of last year. We are sleepwalking in to another in lockdown. Why is nobody seeing this is massive trap which will put us back to sqaure one.

I want this to be the final lockdown in this country.

I would rather everyone clincallly vulnerable and elderly was vaccinated then the lockdown ended completely. If such action means a longer lockdown then i would rather that.

I don't want an autumn/winter lockdown.

Splatt
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by Splatt »

Lady Grey wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:24 pm Most of the population has Not been fully vaccinated. My grandmother is has not received the second dose of the vaccine and many people are still waiting for the second dose.
So what? Data shows protection after 1 dose.

Have 1 dose, if you want to shield then shield. If not, then don't.

Why imprison everyone indefinitely for this?
If Britain was like isreal in which most of the population is fully vaccinated then easing restrictions is reasonable.
Israel is 50% with 1 dose. Not hugely different to the UK.
Easing restrictions when most people have not been fully vaccinated is an irresponsible decision for a Prime Minister to make. This is the worst decision the government has made since eat out to help out.
Why?

Why is it not irresponsible to condemn businesses to ruin, individuals to a life of povetry and deaths by cancer ?

Why when the Oxford sugar pill solution only providing roughly 5-6% extra efficacy is it necessary to wait?

Why not just tell everyone who is terrified and wants to shield to shield and stop imprisoning the population and causing untold economic and social damage to the 99.9% of the people who even if they catch it, will be entirely unaffected by it?
Its is ok for people enjoy themselves but people need to be responsible and not overdo it. British airways today have seen a rise holidays booked and this problem right there.
Anyone booking with BA needs their heads examined but thats because its BA.
TUI reported a 500% increase in bookings. Good. It means residual demand and a chance the economy can recover for that sector at least.
Everyone should be doing this.

People NEED to get back to normal. Proper full on normal. Bed-wetters can hide if they choose but nobody else should be forced to.
We are still in a pandemic, most of the world has not even been vaccinated now is not the time for travelling.
Most of the world will never be vaccinated and most people do not NEED to be vaccinated. Its a globally endemic virus. Its never going away with or without vaccines.
The decisions we make effect the wider community. Its takes just one or a few people get infected and then spread it. It is all connected
So what? Person who doesn't get sick gives it to another person who doesn't get sick. How is that a problem?

The vulnerable are done. Finished. We cannot improve over that no matter how long we lock everyone up for.
I believe in freedom but i also believe in responsibility too just because you can do something doesnt mean you should.
You're arguing for the opposite of freedom. You're arguing for people to be locked away and have their lives ruined to "protect" people who are already protected.

It should be about personal responsibility. If you're terrified then hide. If you're not then dont.
Most restrictions will be eased before my 24th birthday that makes me happy but I cant be fully happy knowing I am living on borrowed time.
No you're not. Stop listening to the SPI-B terror narrative.
Cant you see we are reliving the events of last year. We are sleepwalking in to another in lockdown. Why is nobody seeing this is massive trap which will put us back to sqaure one.
Because its simply complete and utter nonsense.

We have vaccines, more importantly we have a higher % of natural immunity.
We have better treatments.
I want this to be the final lockdown in this country.
You're arguing for never ending lockdowns as you'll never, ever get rid of a seasonal, globally endemic virus.
I would rather everyone clincallly vulnerable and elderly was vaccinated then the lockdown ended completely. If such action means a longer lockdown then i would rather that.
Again why are you demanding people are locked up against their will, they die of undiagnosed diseases, poverty, unemployment, mental health issues and businesses go bankrupt when the virus, even if caught, would have no effect on these people.

People are vaccinated. The protect they have NOW is to within a few percentage points of what they'll get in total.
The 2nd dose is for *longevity* not *protection*.

I don't want an autumn/winter lockdown.
Well that'll happen anyway regardless of vaccines. We;re dealing with a seasonal virus.

Time to get realistic here. We've ALREADY protected the vulnerable groups to the extent its possible and nothing will change there between now and Christmas.

Lady Grey
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:45 pm

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by Lady Grey »

Splatt wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:44 pm
Lady Grey wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:24 pm Most of the population has Not been fully vaccinated. My grandmother is has not received the second dose of the vaccine and many people are still waiting for the second dose.
So what? Data shows protection after 1 dose.

Have 1 dose, if you want to shield then shield. If not, then don't.

Why imprison everyone indefinitely for this?
If Britain was like isreal in which most of the population is fully vaccinated then easing restrictions is reasonable.
Israel is 50% with 1 dose. Not hugely different to the UK.
Easing restrictions when most people have not been fully vaccinated is an irresponsible decision for a Prime Minister to make. This is the worst decision the government has made since eat out to help out.
Why?

Why is it not irresponsible to condemn businesses to ruin, individuals to a life of povetry and deaths by cancer ?

Why when the Oxford sugar pill solution only providing roughly 5-6% extra efficacy is it necessary to wait?

Why not just tell everyone who is terrified and wants to shield to shield and stop imprisoning the population and causing untold economic and social damage to the 99.9% of the people who even if they catch it, will be entirely unaffected by it?
Its is ok for people enjoy themselves but people need to be responsible and not overdo it. British airways today have seen a rise holidays booked and this problem right there.
Anyone booking with BA needs their heads examined but thats because its BA.
TUI reported a 500% increase in bookings. Good. It means residual demand and a chance the economy can recover for that sector at least.
Everyone should be doing this.

People NEED to get back to normal. Proper full on normal. Bed-wetters can hide if they choose but nobody else should be forced to.
We are still in a pandemic, most of the world has not even been vaccinated now is not the time for travelling.
Most of the world will never be vaccinated and most people do not NEED to be vaccinated. Its a globally endemic virus. Its never going away with or without vaccines.
The decisions we make effect the wider community. Its takes just one or a few people get infected and then spread it. It is all connected
So what? Person who doesn't get sick gives it to another person who doesn't get sick. How is that a problem?

The vulnerable are done. Finished. We cannot improve over that no matter how long we lock everyone up for.
I believe in freedom but i also believe in responsibility too just because you can do something doesnt mean you should.
You're arguing for the opposite of freedom. You're arguing for people to be locked away and have their lives ruined to "protect" people who are already protected.

It should be about personal responsibility. If you're terrified then hide. If you're not then dont.
Most restrictions will be eased before my 24th birthday that makes me happy but I cant be fully happy knowing I am living on borrowed time.
No you're not. Stop listening to the SPI-B terror narrative.
Cant you see we are reliving the events of last year. We are sleepwalking in to another in lockdown. Why is nobody seeing this is massive trap which will put us back to sqaure one.
Because its simply complete and utter nonsense.

We have vaccines, more importantly we have a higher % of natural immunity.
We have better treatments.
I want this to be the final lockdown in this country.
You're arguing for never ending lockdowns as you'll never, ever get rid of a seasonal, globally endemic virus.
I would rather everyone clincallly vulnerable and elderly was vaccinated then the lockdown ended completely. If such action means a longer lockdown then i would rather that.
Again why are you demanding people are locked up against their will, they die of undiagnosed diseases, poverty, unemployment, mental health issues and businesses go bankrupt when the virus, even if caught, would have no effect on these people.

People are vaccinated. The protect they have NOW is to within a few percentage points of what they'll get in total.
The 2nd dose is for *longevity* not *protection*.

I don't want an autumn/winter lockdown.
Well that'll happen anyway regardless of vaccines. We;re dealing with a seasonal virus.

Time to get realistic here. We've ALREADY protected the vulnerable groups to the extent its possible and nothing will change there between now and Christmas.
I have made so many plans of the things I want to do when the lockdown restrictions ease.

I will go ahead with them.

I am excited this easing but I feel like this all trap.

I have this sense of unease and anxiety that another lockdown is inevitable. I don't want these feelings trust me.

Maybe i just worrying for nothing like i always do and I hope I am wrong.

fon
Posts: 1172
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by fon »

ttenl wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:42 pm Winter happened last time. It will happen again this year.
It's best to avoid basic on/off lockdown control in response to predictable events like winter. It is better to have a buffer of extra capacity, rather than resorting to brutal on/off lockdowns, or to (at least) apply restrictions in places where they do most good at the best times. Assuming if due to lack of capacity, restrictions are reqd. at all.

Splatt
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by Splatt »

We'll have another one in Autumn. Plan for it.

CoronanationStreet
Posts: 381
Joined: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:03 pm

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by CoronanationStreet »

That's the big problem isn't it....will they plan/are they planning for the upturn in cases at the end of the summer?

The big problem is, surely, if they continue testing whether it is mass-testing at schools or certain workplaces, they will always find the excuse for lockdown on the basis of cases identified, into a model, model spits out worst case etc. Even before the NHS gets anywhere near overloaded, they will have the modelled "evidence" to support lockdown and/or other restrictions.

Splatt
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Lockdown 4 is inevitable

Post by Splatt »

Well imperial have decided its non-seasonal despite lots of data to the contrary.

Their model for this roadmap was 33,000 extra deaths by next spring and a hospital admission bigger than the first waves in September.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... gland_.pdf

A look at the "we do not model" shows theres so much not in the models as to be useless.

So despite vaccines and natural immunity combined with lower cases, imperial predict this summer will somehow be worse than last year.

Meanwhile, in the real world, most people expect a seasonal, endemic respiratory virus to rise in autumn and peak in Dec/Jan just like they always do...

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