Vaccination, Infections and deaths

choc_nuts
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:52 pm

Vaccination, Infections and deaths

Post by choc_nuts »

Hi,

I keep hearing from the Sirs and Professors that the vaccination roll-out has lead to significant drop of the infections and deaths by COVID-19. They all talk like there is a kind of cause and effect relationship.

I don't see how this works; getting the vaccine makes the immune system more responsive and more effective meaning that the symptoms most likely will be mild and the risk of death is decreased.

But it does not mean that you can not get infected by the virus. So, why do the officials say that there is a drop to the infections due to the extensive vaccination? It sounds to me like another political narrative to help them get out of the mess they created.

Consequently, why is the drop in the deaths a surprise if there is a drop in the infections? What is so special about this? Less infected people means less people will be hospitalised and, thus, less people will lose their lives.

And one last note; I am very suspicious of of the numbers of people who have been vaccinated. I volunteer as vaccinator myself and in some main sites in London the problem we face is that there are not many citizens to receive the vaccine.

It is a surprise to hear these huge numbers. Is anyone in the position to confirm them somehow?

Thanks

Splatt
Posts: 1090
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccination, Infections and deaths

Post by Splatt »

choc_nuts wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:15 pm I don't see how this works; getting the vaccine makes the immune system more responsive and more effective meaning that the symptoms most likely will be mild and the risk of death is decreased.
To cut a long long story short, the immune system isnt one "thing". Its 2 branches, each of which are split into many many interlinked sub branches below that.

Some parts of it produce an immediate response to any foreign body, some of it act on pre-learned pathogens, other parts identify infected calls and kill them off.

Some vaccines are highly sterilising in that they produce an immune response that hits the pathogen before it can establish an infection. Very few vaccines are sterilising, especially long term.

Others will rapidly recognise an infection and stop it very very quickly, long before it can spread enough for the individual to become infectious.

Others will act after an infection but rapidly enough to reduce the infectious period of that individual, viral load and so on.

Maybe a better way to think of this is the immune system acting far far more rapidly after vaccination. If the infectious period and/or viral load is reduced that will reduce the risk of transmission.

So, why do the officials say that there is a drop to the infections due to the extensive vaccination? It sounds to me like another political narrative to help them get out of the mess they created.
Its possible to see, especially in Israeli data. We have past data for the speed of decline due to things like NPIs.
But also we'd see a faster decline in age groups vaccinated than those that have not. Same for deaths.
Israeli data is starting to show this clearly.

And one last note; I am very suspicious of of the numbers of people who have been vaccinated. I volunteer as vaccinator myself and in some main sites in London the problem we face is that there are not many citizens to receive the vaccine.
London has one of the worst take-up rates in the entire country, especially in some communities so that might explain it.
I know of exactly 1 person here who refused it but he's also a batshit conspiraloon who stockpiles water for Y2k, thinks all vaccines change your DNA and the world is run by lizard people so thats not exactly a shock.
He'll basically believe anything posted on Reddit.

Not seen anything locally to suggest take-up rates are anything other than exceptional.

Post Reply