Oh those cheeky, cheeky modellers are at it again!
Predicting maybe 40,000 deaths in July if we don't do something (forgotten what we're supposed to do now - stick tampons up our nostrils and don't come within 100m of each other or something like that)
These modelling figures make no sense (quelle surprise, eh?). Let’s see the number of deaths we might expect if we make the following (somewhat crazy) assumptions:
- absolutely everybody gets corona again in July – yes, everyone
- the over 60’s have been vaccinated with a 90% effective vaccine
- no-one under 60 has been vaccinated
Now, Prof Iaonnidis estimates a UK IFR of between 0.3-0.4% so taking the upper bound here, and working from the published 2020 covid death stats for England and Wales and the 2019 population data we can work out an IFR for the various age ranges – assuming a uniform infection rate. My estimates are in the table.
- Table2020.jpg (92.04 KiB) Viewed 121 times
Now, using these estimates we can figure out what would happen if
absolutely everyone got infected with this virus in July – including those who’ve already had it. We find that about 14,600 would be expected to die in the under 60’s and, with the vaccine, around 22,300 people over 60 would be expected to die. A grand total of just under 37,000 deaths.
That’s the maximum
possible number of deaths if we accept the assumptions.
Is it possible there’s something
wrong with the models? Surely not!!!!
