A plausible explanation for post-vac outbreaks?

jdbtc
Posts: 1
Joined: Tue May 04, 2021 6:25 am

A plausible explanation for post-vac outbreaks?

Post by jdbtc »

TLDR: Vaccination of populations with pre-existing immunity will create transient super-spreaders...


The governmental / health organisation narrative that this virus is a novel threat has always been suspect (though perhaps initially understandable given the likelihood that it escaped from a bio lab).

Back at the very beginning in the days of the Diamond Princess, where 3000+ above-average age passengers and crew gave us the first clue, as so few people died, or even got sick, despite constant exposure, it should have been hard to believe that everyone was vulnerable to this “novel” virus.

And we now know that blood samples in Italy show antibodies present in Sep 2019, indicating that Cov19 was present and circulating in Europe for >6 months without anyone noticing before the outbreaks in vulnerable care homes hit the media. (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/1 ... 1620974755).

So there is likely to be far more widespread T-cell derived immunity than the gov/WHO narrative depends upon, and the virus reached endemic levels in most countries much sooner than widely thought.

Countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia etc (and China itself if trusted) provide a nice existence proof of this (albeit waved away by lockdown zealots as incredible test and tracers, mask wearers, or some such implausible unscientific explanation).

That narrative had to be shut down rapidly, along with any hints of cheap treatments, or Big-Pandemic would not be able to reap the rewards of the long-awaited testing and vaccination bonanza. Other vested interests hopped on board the train.

But now this narrative has lead governments down the crazy route of first mass asymptomatic testing, and now into mass vaccination (along with incredibly damaging lockdowns and mask mandates etc, despite the overwhelming evidence that they do not correlate with reduced cases/deaths in a logically consistent fashion).

So what is happening now in Thailand, where a government has been convinced that its previously unscathed population needs to be vaccinated? We have yet another “coincidental” outbreak of cases and deaths matching the vaccine roll out. These post-vaccination peaks can be seen in almost all countries, and are becoming harder to ignore.

But why could this be?

We now know from the Pfizer and AZ early clinical data that lymphocyte counts drop for days after vaccination, and that >40% more Covid19 cases were detected within 7 days of vaccination, in the vaccinated arm vs the placebo (409 vs 287). p43 para1 and p42 para 2 respectively https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

Recent data from >2000 vaccinated patients in the UK supports this - where an “abundance of patients admitted to hospital with seven days of vaccination”. page 3 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... Apr_21.pdf

How can this be?

Well, what would one expect to see in an environment of endemic virus and widespread T cell mediated herd immunity, when vaccination induces a ~2 week suppression of immune system function?

At the individual level, immune surveillance that would normally deal with occasional SCov2 viral arrivals briefly proliferating in the epithelia of the lungs, is apparently significantly compromised, while the insult of sudden appearance of vast numbers of antigen molecules inside the body, is dealt with - perhaps by sequestering the majority of the the relevant lymphocyte populations.

In a large number of such individuals, there would some proportion of people with cryptic infections, that would normally be resolved (below the detection level of the dodgy pcr), that instead get a chance to bloom post vaccination.

Across a community post-vaccination, one could imagine 2 outcomes for exposed post vaccinated individuals:

1) in very healthy individuals, the intramuscular insult is successfully dealt with, as is any lung infection - or:

2) in frail individuals with significant post-vacc immune suppression, existing or post vacc lung infection develops beyond recovery by immune system once vaccination insult is dealt with, leading to symptomatic SARS.

But there will be a spectrum of immune response/general health between these two outcomes, and thus some subset of the post-vacc population will transiently develop a mild respiratory infection in the lungs, while the immune system is focussed on the apparently more life-threating outbreak of (thrombogenic) spike proteins in the muscle/circulatory system.

And in countries like Thailand with a very high level of preexisting immunity, one would expect to see transient outbreaks of cases and deaths subsequent to vaccination. As indeed we do.

However in countries where T cell immunity is not so well established, the situation could be much more dangerous.

Transiently mildly symptomatic but immune individuals might represent the much-feared but in reality rarely-spotted super-spreaders, with enough of an infection to spread to others, but little in the way of symptoms to prevent them from spreading it.

Such a scenario might explain the otherwise mysterious cases like Gibraltar, where a post-vacc outbreak appears to have occurred, but the majority of deaths were not themselves vaccinated.

At a larger country level, sudden outbreaks of cases/deaths would then be expected correlating to vaccination rollouts commencing (regardless of geography, unlike a nasty variant arising and spreading), in large numbers of people that prior to vaccination were functionally immune.

Such transient outbreaks would be most easy to see in countries with medium levels of pre-existing herd immunity, with lowish levels of death per million such as India.

Furthermore, such post-vacc transient super-spreaders, would cause major issues in particular contexts:

In the care home context, frail but weakly immune residents who had survived their previous exposure(s) would suddenly become susceptible to infection and illness post-vaccination. But young healthy staff could also briefly go from being functionally immune, to mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic spreaders - particularly if staff and residents are vaccinated at the same time.

In such a scenario, one might expect to see sudden outbreaks occur in care homes that had otherwise seen no sickness for months, as were clearly seen in Ireland and the UK.

In a hospital context, where the virus is clearly frequently endemic, the vaccination of young and healthy hcws who are almost all previously exposed/functionally immune but are working in an environment where their lungs are much more frequently reseeded with the virus than the general population, could convert a subset of them to super-spreaders temporarily as well - especially as such health care workers are unlikely to isolate post vaccination, as they would likely ascribe any symptoms they experience to minor adverse effects of the vaccination (as most will already know they have been exposed to prior infection, and will assume they are immune - plus they are typically very dedicated employees who desperately want to look after their sick patients even if they feel a little under the weather).

An indication that this was/is happening can be seen in The REACT study of prevalence in January, which showed that the odds ratio of having a positive swab was 1.48 in healthcare and care home workers and 1.38 in other key workers (when compared to all workers). https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... nuary-2021

In such a scenario, one might expect to see a sudden anomalous and transient uptick in covid deaths in hospitals, that is not matched by community triage statistics, but does match to a corresponding fall in the numbers of patients expected to die of the conditions that would typically kill a certain number each day.

Much like what was observed in the UK “third wave” in late December that hit just as the “second wave” from November was subsiding, and was ascribed to yet another variant, despite the third wave coinciding with the vaccination roll out.

In all of the above contexts, the belief - fostered by many governments worldwide, that masking somehow prevents aerosol transmission - will have contributed to the final death toll.

And if the above is indeed what is really happening here, then the constant censorship, belittling, and even “cancelling” of scientists pointing out the evidence of pre-existing T cell immunity, and questioning the logic of vaccinating a population with high levels of immunity, before fully establishing what the vaccine actually does in the patient, will have killed the most of all.

Splatt
Posts: 1523
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: A plausible explanation for post-vac outbreaks?

Post by Splatt »

The Thailand example is pretty much nonsense.
It started before *any* vaccination and the numbers vaccinated so far are so insignificantly small (well under 1% single dose) they have no effect at all.
Its also not that cohort catching it.
Theres no overlap in timing, geographic spread or demographic between vaccinated and infected (in fact, its the opposite)

Thailand almost certainly has some innate immunity and is also helped by climate (UV, high heat, high humidity, a population that outside cities spends very little time indoors in aircon etc) though. The whole region is likely helped in this way - it reduces Rt substantially.
Add that to a fairy young population without a huge amount of obesity - this greatly reduces serious and even symptomatic illness.

Theres also the fact that testing is sporadic and limited and given if you test positive, even if asymptomatic you're hauled off to 14 day detention in a government "clinic" full of other potential disease vectors. It provides a great incentive to NOT get tested.
Case numbers are likely far higher than published as a result. And thats before you add governors lying about it.

The problem in many places trying to link vaccines to an outbreak is even with weakened immune systems they still have to catch it. In many places, the UK included, the prevelence is so low that even if there was a subdued immune system (no data for that) you'd have to try pretty damn hard to find an infected person and catch it in that 2 week period.
Very unlikely these people are catching it from the vaccination hall too.

Im half wondering if there is an issue with side effects trigger a test which then due to inaccurcies or even crap single gene positives falsely indicate infection.
In other words, vaccine side effects are being mistaken as actual covid in some instances.

jmc
Posts: 403
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 am

Re: A plausible explanation for post-vac outbreaks?

Post by jmc »

A very interesting summary. And a plausible one too.

My one observation is about the paper showing the 2019 positive anti-body result in Italy. There were multiple observations in the first outbreak of SARs CoV 1 in 2003 of both the RT-PCR- nd ELISA tests of clinical cases returning seemingly true positive results for other related corona-viruses. If I remember correctly OC-43, the mostly recently introduced of the general circulation human corona viruses, being one of the main culprits.

So although I think this SARs Cov2 probably first escaped into the wild around April 2019 even with the very high traffic between Wuhan / Hubei and Italy I dont think the virus became local epidemic in parts of Wuhan until September / October 2019. Based on the timeline of the CCP's attempts at cover-up. The fact that it was only in mid December that it started appearing Hong Kong would support a mid/late November timeline for general epidemic in the greater Wuhan area. So even in parts of greater Milan and maybe that part of Lombardy there was not a great probability of transmission until maybe December 2019.

funtimes
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:45 am

Re: A plausible explanation for post-vac outbreaks?

Post by funtimes »

Plausible explanation is you have been duped and spent the past year being tortured under the context of a killer virus roaming around the world. Now you are trying to rehash the crazy making narrative in order to try and get closure from it and to really believe everything that happened was justified because it is too hard to face the fact that you got duped and the world and reality you knew before all this was stolen from you.

You may never know the full truth just like 9/11 has never been investigated conclusively. Just like the war on terror has never fully been acknowledged as a scam. Just like the war on drugs. These are wars that have been going on for DECADES. Events that apparently happened decades ago that led to the action still being taken today and yet despite the evidence the mainstream narrative STILL doesnt relay the facts and seek to shut the book on these storied affairs. Most people will NEVER know the truth. The truth will NEVER be aired in public unless extremely redacted to the point of the date being the only thing left on the "classified" documents "leaked" to the press the day the "truth" comes out.

Why? Because thats not what they are fucking designed to do! You dont start a war and then back off some time later saying it was all bullshit. You dont shut the world down to then say you did it for the LOLs. What world are you living in buddy? Wake the fuck up. There are some nasty evil and sick people out there and shady governments in toe as well as super wealthy and super powerful private interests and trans-national corporations. They are not here in their lifetime or yours for that matter to hold your hand and reveal all their dirty secrets before they kiss you on the cheek and turn your bedside light out.

You have been tortured and you are experiencing symptoms of the trauma. You are trying to rationalize the irrational. There is no undercover work to do. You can intellectualize this all you want. 99% of the narrative is FICTION. The rest is irrelevant. It is the 99% of the narrative that has taken your freedoms away and destroyed your normal life. Deal with it.

The reason why you need explanations is because you are in denial and being programmed to chase the narrative and inspect parts of the narrative as if you will find answers there when the narrative is bullshit. It was bullshit to begin with and it is bullshit now.

Focus on what is being done because of the narrative and not the narrative itself. The narrative is the distraction. Focus on what has been taken away instead of looking several thousand miles away in some other fucking country. That is what is keeping you here intellectualizing all the bullshit. When the bullshit is seen for it is, it all ends. Its that simple. When you keep entertaining it, it still controls you.

Or just keep waffling like a clown who wants to play armchair PhD in order to appear like hes the superior intellectual. Go back to reading your Medium blogs and stick to sipping your hipster beverages. The joke is on you at the end of the day. All that knowledge and you are fucking clueless as to what is right in front of you. You dont need a PhD to see that its all bullshit. You dont need several years of higher education to know the past year was a power grab unlike any other ever seen in human history. A power grab that has potentially irreversibly altered the direction of human society worldwide and at the same time under the pretense of an alien invader that everybody had no choice but to destroy their own lives and those around them to "protect" themselves and others from. The same bogeyman in the desert only now its Al Queda in your body. YOU are the terrorist.

Intellectualize that you fool.

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