Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

thinksaboutit
Posts: 562
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by thinksaboutit »

The success of the vaccination program is clear to see, in the daily statistics.
Updated vaccines may be necessary to counter variants.
We'll be free of most restrictions quite soon and limited overseas travel will be possible.
World-wide vaccination will happen is a couple of years and we'll progress to an endemic state for Covid.

What will sceptics make of this situation?

halfhearted
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:02 pm

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by halfhearted »

thinksaboutit wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:24 pm The success of the vaccination program is clear to see...
The Covid panic became political after about 2 months. All government actions and statements since then have been oriented strictly towards keeping the Government in power, and, noticeably Labour has simply become an unofficial partner in a Covid coalition. Their behaviour has been even more craven than usual. There are a number of factors that still have to play out before even the most abject Tory loyalists can claim "success". The number of deaths also collapsed after the first wave without any vaccines. I hope that sceptics will see the wider political ramifications of Tory/Labour collaboration over the decimation of the economy and their frantic attempts to blame the public for a natural disaster and look in new populist directions. We have yet to find about -
1) the 3rd Wave, could still happen
2) vaccines fail as virus mutates
3) any sober assessment of the performance of the NHS has to conclude it has been utterly dismal
4) the restrictions that will NOT be lifted after June 21st
5) the public enquiry into why the UK had more deaths than any other European country
6) why surgeries are still not giving face-to-face appointments & are resisting attempts to reintroduce them
These are just a few of the issues yet to be resolved. Tories need know that this will not be resolved for years.

Shotclog
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:37 am

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by Shotclog »

In what sense? I am not sure what you are asking.

Obviously, I want all restrictions ended as soon as possible and, somehow, some sort of guarantee that the destructive policy of lockdown will never be deployed again.

I have grave doubts that we will achieve the first goal in the near/medium term. The Government has already started on its usual policy of slipping in references to a change in the goalposts in cosy interviews which then hardens into law (or ministerial diktat). So I expect that certain pointless but virtue-signalling restrictions will remain.

As for the second goal, my only hope here is that the public enquiry will have a sufficiently wide remit to consider whether the cost of lockdown was actually worth it. I have been utterly persuaded by the studies that show, on a meta-analysis basis, that lockdowns have not reduced net deaths, have caused untold damage to health and the economy and overall fare worse than e.g. the Swedish approach (but of course, confirmation bias can't be discounted). I suppose therefore that want I want to happen next is for there to be a free public enquiry into all aspects, not just, e.g. "did we lockdown too late?"

Again, I have grave doubts that this will happen.

ScarlettR
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:22 am

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by ScarlettR »

Concentrate on the human rights issues that have been my concern all along.

OpenYourEyes
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:47 am

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by OpenYourEyes »

The fact that the restriction didn't melt away last Summer but "become endemic" is what caused the movement to become organised. If restrictions ended tomorrow, I'd still be interested in socialising with fellow sceptics, and having our own pubs, festivals, sports league, tv stations, etc. We will do whatever it takes to ensure "unlockable" social structure exists.

theoldkungflu
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:59 pm

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by theoldkungflu »

It's job done. But job done was achieved when all the over 60s, at risk and vunerable were fully vaccinated months ago. Yet the fear and restrictions of all kinds continue...

1984
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:11 am

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by 1984 »

progressing to an endemic Covid state is what many informed skeptics have been predicting from the outset

you really are a dumb piece of work

Shotclog
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:37 am

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by Shotclog »

Well, speaking as a lockdown sceptic (and not a vaccine sceptic) I'd say this was all good news. Much as I have hated lockdown and think it is a foolish policy, we can't change the past-but the future surely looks better. I have real doubts that freedom properly so called is just around the corner, but the argument for restrictions grows weaker every day.

jmc
Posts: 403
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 am

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by jmc »

thinksaboutit wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:24 pm The success of the vaccination program is clear to see, in the daily statistics.
Updated vaccines may be necessary to counter variants.
We'll be free of most restrictions quite soon and limited overseas travel will be possible.
World-wide vaccination will happen is a couple of years and we'll progress to an endemic state for Covid.

What will sceptics make of this situation?
If you run even the simplest models of a respiratory infectious disease with such a low R0, (< 1.2) and a very low prevalence of < 0.3% you will see it will take at least 180 / 270 days after the 14/28 day full immune system response period for any actual measurable decrease in transmission in the general population. This is after the baseline vaccination rate is passed. Around 50% for a low R0 like SARs CoV2.

This is very basic physics. And disease pathology. Transmission events are rare if less than 3 in every 1000 in the general population have transmittable infections. All a vaccine will do is reduce the already low probability of transmission a little bit more. But not that much. It takes a long time for such an effect to turn up and the effect curve will be very shallow. You can only get a measurable effect in a short time period with very high R0. In the 15 to 20 range. Again, due to science.

If the vaccination programme was only starting now in late spring rather than a few months ago at the height of the annual flu season in the middle of winter the "case" numbers would still have declined. Because that's how seasonal respiratory infections work. Got nothing to do with vaccinations.

So until next autumn most of the genuine SARs 2 infections with probably be hospital acquired and then they will take off again with the next flu season. Just like all the other general circulation corona-viruses. Of course due to the high baseline false positives from mass testing the actual "case" numbers will never reach zero. Far from it. Unless they go back to pre March 2020 diagnosis procedures. When they will very quickly decline.

In fact that will be easiest way of declaring vaccination a "success". Quietly return testing procedures to pre March 2020 standards. The "case" numbers very quickly drop because almost all the false positives disappear. And declare victory. That vaccination was a huge success.

This is called how to lie with statistics. Fans of Sir Humphrey Appleby GCB KBE MVO will be very familiar with how this works..

Nobody
Posts: 201
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:05 pm

Re: Covid is being beaten in the UK. What next for sceptics?

Post by Nobody »

What are the conditions of possibility of the state of affairs that has brought us all here? I pose that since you will all have your own insights into this (I live in isolation and have never had a job so my knowledge of the world is very limited!) but it seems to me that the framework in which pandemic was called was a carefully institutionally manufactured situation with historical precedence. The fact that the WHO managed this time, where it failed in 2010 should ring alarm bells, this is my concern. The conditions of possibility of this state of affairs are the use of institutional machineries of representation to force acceptance of an account of the nature of a potential viral threat that forced changes in behavioural routines and spatial practices on the global population. All this is now culturally sedimented. Even if you remove the masks, the damage is done, I think. People will not go back to their pre-covid awareness and practical sense of the significance of others and their environment. This was the underlying goal of the prolonging of lockdown and why the state apparatus is committed to the continuation of these regimes. The pandemic shows that the nation-state institutional apparatus is now no longer committed to the public interest. Look at the teaching profession, the medical profession, all of the dictates have been accepted without challenge and anyone who has tried to act like a barely decent human being has been ostracised and ritually sacrificed. This is new only in its scale, UK institutions have been like this for decades. The conditions of possibility of this pandemic are entrenched institutional interests manipulating the public sphere and using institutional mediums to create representations that are used to manipulate others, engendering fear and insecurity to erode the minimal level of human sociality from which any counter culture might originate. Even if Fuellmich is successful, we are all struggling from a new horizon. The elites behind this have won, more or less, because they have secured their new-normal. At best, they might be forced to back off for a while but the rationale instituted by the covid fraud has been accepted: it does not matter if the lie is generated in a complex and institutionally sophisticated matter when commitment is extorted via force of practice, you are made to accept the version of reality because it is part of the oppressive power that the order of things exerts upon us once it is publicly operationalised. This is why it creates cognitive dissonance so powerfully: even if you know the virus is no real threat, you have to act as if you might, at any time, either infect someone or catch something. You are made aware of this interpretation of reality, you are forced to accept this representation, it has social efficacy, this is why the media is bought and paid for and pumping representations that are legitimated by the weight of the rest of the institutional-representational paraphernalia invested in what the lies are attempting to realise. It is like unpicking discrimination that is sedimented in behaviours but officially denied: you end up tilting at windmills, or being perceived to do so. So, whatever happens now, it is unlikely to ever go back, the reality has been established, unless there is continuous civil disobedience, it will persist. New representations can be endlessly produced that justify it and, no doubt, the pharmaceuticals companies already know what new vaccine boosts are being prepared for which new variants. Institutions supposedly concerned with the public good have been used to establish a monopolistic new market that most have already accepted by being vaccinated. The only real thing one can do is refuse vaccination. Given that the whole of the state of affairs has been manipulated in order to make necessary, that is, reasonable, acceptance of vaccination, that seems to me a reason to refuse it under all circumstances. States are not beneficent, when they universally enforce something like this, something sinister is occurring. It is like the inquisition. If someone reduces you to a single choice, you are being manipulated.

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