Are 5-7 million Swedes already immune?

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Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:35 pm

Are 5-7 million Swedes already immune?

Post by SL »

2-4 million with natural immunity?
3 million with vaccine acquired immunity?
Sum total perhaps as many as 7 million immune?

Yesterday the Public Health Agency of Sweden (FHM) released the results from the week 9-10 testing of anti-bodies in random blood donors and people leaving blood samples during health care visits. On average 22% of the donors aged 0-64 had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. As almost all of these were not vaccinated at that point in time it can be assumed that the immunity was acquired through natural infection. The levels are about three times the numbers of the week 48 and 49 test period.

Immunity is higher in the Stockholm region and lower in northern Sweden as excpected from the epidemic progression in Sweden.

Another study, the so called "Community-studien", of un-vaccinated health care personnel found that about 40% had anti-bodies in january 2021. (Approximately 7,3% of the swedish population works in the health care sector. And assuming one partner, one sibling, one child and two parents they are in regular daily contact with, possibly, at least as much as 35% of the remnant population.)

In addition the study found that most of these infections were very mild and almost unnoticeable (it may be noted that Sweden did not block health care personnel with positive tests, or ditto relatives, and no clear symptoms from working).

As also 3 million people has received at least one shot of the vaccine at this point, that may mean that as many as 7 million currently may be immune.

And additionally, as a curio, a link to a cocky blogger that posted a prognosis for Sweden on april 21. It has held up surprisingly well. It's even got the small ICU admissions bump at the beginning of may. (Dashed green = ICU occupancy), green line = new admissions to the ICU, dashed brown deceased with Covid-19 diagnosis and brown line = total all causes deaths. Weekly totals.)

Links ... ntikroppar ... port-1.pdf ... port-2.pdf