Mike Yeadon is spot on

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by fon »

Mike Yeadon is spot on in his latest video when he mentioned that that the Indian variants are 99.7% identical to the basic corona-virus, and hence our immune systems will cope with variants (obvsly, this holds for vaccine as well, since vaccine fires our immune systems into action.)

https://rumble.com/vg4inv-michael-yeado ... kdown.html

And on the Marr show Matt Hancock confirmed that Mike Yeadon is statistically correct 35 mins in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... w-16052021

When discussing the Indian variant Hancock said “there are 18 people in bolton in hospital with corona-virus five of them having had one jab, and one person who was frail had had two jabs.” he said the vast majority had had no jabs. 13 out of 18 is the vast majority, just about.

Your risk is obvsly highest if you had no jabs, if you have 1 jab, you cut it to ~ 28% of what it would have been. And if you have both jabs, you cut the risk by a factor of ~18, which is in almost exactly in line with trial results (94.5% reduction in risk.) It’s good to have a 94% relative risk reduction, esp. when the one out of 18 who get sick after two jabs already frail.

So in summary: Hancock confirmed that Hospital findings in Bolton on May 11 yield a 1 in 18 relative risk reduction after two jabs, which equates to 94.4% relative risk reduction, exactly in line with trial results, this variant does not get past the vaccine. Or a 67% relative risk reduction after one jab. Again almost exactly in line with Oxford AZ vaccine trial results.If this holds elsewhere, and we can get everybody vaccinated, we're through this. Mike Yeadon is correct.

CoronanationStreet
Posts: 425
Joined: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:03 pm

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by CoronanationStreet »

On the basis of 18 people in Bolton? What else do you know about them and their health aside from their vaccine status?

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:03 pm Mike Yeadon is spot on in his latest video when he mentioned that that the Indian variants are 99.7% identical to the basic corona-virus, and hence our immune systems will cope with variants (obvsly, this holds for vaccine as well, since vaccine fires our immune systems into action.)
Except thats demonstrably wrong at even A-level knowledge of biology.

Immune system doesnt on a percentage similarity.
We're talking about 3D structure of a protein that allows another protein(antibody etc) to bind.

A single point change in an amino acid sequence can also the 3D structure to the extent it can't be bound to.

Which is why P1/351 with the E484K mutations exhibit a 6-9 fold reduction in efficacy in serum studies.

Its also why other mutations in non structural parts despite having 20x or so more do not reduce neutralisation.

He's wrong, he knows he's wrong, he's lying.

There isn't "the indian variant". There are 3, all subtly different.

617.1 contains a 484Q mutation as well as L452R. This is a worry for vaccines due to the 484 change.

617.2 which appears to be dominant has L452R but NOT 484Q. This is the one that seems to be spreading better but because it lacks that mutation is far less of a concern for vaccine efficacy.

Its absolutely nothing to do with percentages, its about where and what a mutation does to the 3 dimensional structure of the final protein.

burke19
Posts: 72
Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:32 pm

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by burke19 »

Anyone else get a Morecambe and Wise feeling about this post? Or is it good cop bad cop?

thinksaboutit
Posts: 674
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by thinksaboutit »

fon wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:03 pm Mike Yeadon is spot on in his latest video when he mentioned that that the Indian variants are 99.7% identical to the basic corona-virus, and hence our immune systems will cope with variants (obvsly, this holds for vaccine as well, since vaccine fires our immune systems into action.)

https://rumble.com/vg4inv-michael-yeado ... kdown.html

And on the Marr show Matt Hancock confirmed that Mike Yeadon is statistically correct 35 mins in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... w-16052021
Accepting corroboration of poor information from someone with no knowledge is unwise.

The 99.7% expression of difference in variants is meaningless.

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 10:31 pm
fon wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:03 pm Mike Yeadon is spot on in his latest video when he mentioned that that the Indian variants are 99.7% identical to the basic corona-virus, and hence our immune systems will cope with variants (obvsly, this holds for vaccine as well, since vaccine fires our immune systems into action.)
Except thats demonstrably wrong at even A-level knowledge of biology.
Mike Yeadon is more highly qualified that that, and the basic figures show the outcomes in Bolton are close to trial results, do I have to feed you with a spoon? Or are you just in denial?

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by fon »

CoronanationStreet wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 9:00 pm On the basis of 18 people in Bolton? What else do you know about them and their health aside from their vaccine status?
It comes out in the wash with statistics. More results coming in all the time. All say the same thing Mike Yeadon is quite right. Vaccine efficacy is untouched by tiny variations.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... ion-widget

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 10:31 pm
fon wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:03 pm Which is why P1/351 with the E484K mutations exhibit a 6-9 fold reduction in efficacy in serum studies.
i can see why you might be right there, Of course nature could change the key piece of information used by the immune system to match it, but all lab predictions, in silico or in vitro are obvsly trumped by field observations. That just the way it is.

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Mike Yeadon is spot on

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 9:01 am Mike Yeadon is more highly qualified that that,
Correct - which is why i said he's deliberately lying.
and the basic figures show the outcomes in Bolton are close to trial results, do I have to feed you with a spoon? Or are you just in denial?
He's claiming immunity is down to a simple percentage similarity which is blatantly untrue. He knows this therefore its deliberate.

Theres not enough data from Bolton for anyone to show anything unless you want +/-100% CIs.
Any basic statistical analysis on that shows the sample size so small and data is so noisy its actually impossible to come out with any of what he claims.
Again, he'll know this but chooses not to mention it. So again deliberately misleading.

Vaccine efficacy is untouched by tiny variations.
Simply untrue for SARs2, influenza or any other diseases.

E484K is a single point mutation of an amino acid. It reduces neutralising sera and so on 6-9 fold depending on sample and vaccine.
Real world resulting in a 30 - 70% loss of efficacy depending on vaccine.

It wont affect ALL the epitopes but can affect enough to have an effect.

Its more common than not tiny mutations or deletions can have huge differences on immune evasion.
For every virus.


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