OK, so what might happen next?

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

There seem to be increasingly polarised opinions about lockdown - perhaps we are approaching a significant point where something has to give? I am finding it hard to form a clear picture of what would happen then.

I am interested to hear thoughts on the scenarios below, whether there are other possible scenarios, what could trigger a change from the current position and how any change would be enacted.

The current policy appears to be to increase and decrease restrictions when and where it is deemed to be appropriate:

1. At some point the Government decides that there is sufficient evidence that the approach has been successful and there is an overall easing of restrictions.

2. At some point the Government admits that there is sufficient evidence that the approach will NOT be successful or that the 'price' being paid is too high . What evidence would be needed and what options would then be considered?

3. At some point the level of non-compliance is such that the Government realises that its current policy is untenable unless they try to impose it more forcefully? How far would they go with that and what options would be considered if that did not work?

MyHomeIsMyCastle
Posts: 234
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:21 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by MyHomeIsMyCastle »

The government always seems to take the line that if lockdowns don't work, that means we need tougher lockdowns.

I keep hoping my fellow citizens will discover their backbone and start to rebel, but there are few signs of that happening.

So I think Option 3 is the most likely: we'll have ramped-up propaganda encouraging people to blame the "selfish idiots" who are not complying for the failure to control the virus, and tougher restrictions. The people who have lost their reason will be encouraged to be resentful of the few sensible ones, who are "spoiling things for everybody".

We are not dealing with rationality here.

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MikeAustin
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Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:27 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by MikeAustin »

SilentP wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:07 pm 1. At some point the Government decides that there is sufficient evidence that the approach has been successful and there is an overall easing of restrictions.

2. At some point the Government admits that there is sufficient evidence that the approach will NOT be successful or that the 'price' being paid is too high . What evidence would be needed and what options would then be considered?

3. At some point the level of non-compliance is such that the Government realises that its current policy is untenable unless they try to impose it more forcefully? How far would they go with that and what options would be considered if that did not work?
Is this a poll? My vote is #1.
They all know they have made a balls up and they will try to cover it up.

Speedstick
Posts: 506
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:27 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Speedstick »

This is a very very good question Silent P.
I suspect rather unfortunately we will continue with the sad status quo for the time being, after all kicking the can down the road instead of making firm decisions is the default position for most modern day politicians. However l have a hunch in the New Year at some point Boris will either jump, or as the economy continues to flounder, and he becomes increasingly toxic to the Conservative party, be pushed. This would give rise to the election of a new leader, and as most Conservative party members electing such a leader, are for the most part l suspect, likely to be fellow sceptics, l am very much hoping for the election of a much more sanguine leader and then hopefully we shall start to see the end of this utter charade.

Eddie
Posts: 35
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:04 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Eddie »

I fear it's going to be a long cold lonely winter. I felt like the tide of public opinion was turning a few weeks ago and I was chipping away at my friends and family, converting quite a few to our cause. But with the rising death rate and a surge of fearmongering news stories (antibodies fading, SAGE predicting deadlier 2nd wave etc.), I sense that some are beginning to fall back into line.

My hope is that, like the Soviet Union in 1991, it will all suddently and swiftly collapse under the weight of evidence against it, the growing anger and the sheer cost. I think what is more likely is that we'll end up with scenario 3, followed by an ugly and protracted breakdown of law and order

Cheesyrider
Posts: 48
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:07 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Cheesyrider »

I think public opinion HAS shifted. Sometime in the early October period most likely - definitely by the time that 83 year old woman from Barnsley went viral.

That doesn't mean the battle is won (far from it) but people like us are no longer lone voices in the wilderness wondering "am I crazy for thinking people are freaking out and overreacting to this?" as we were back in April/May (or even August/September). There is now a proper battle going on.

I think the most likely scenario is a winter of rolling lockdowns (whatever euphemism is given to them), with increasingly intense and fierce battles between the two sides, and more protests, more suppression etc.

There will be some kind of easing in the spring with good weather.

Key unknowns which can change the field:

1. A vaccine. There will be one for sure sometime in the next few months to a year (doesn't have to be a good one). I suspect that Boris will seize it as an excuse to create a path out of lockdown.

2. Another hard lockdown (whatever called) could potentially push public opinion way over the edge into anti-lockdown territory - at some point, something has to give. In that sense, it may actually be good for us to have that - it will be horrible, but a sharp lockdown could shift public sentiment decisively in our favour more than months of rolling on/off nonsense (it won't do anything against the virus of course - we all know that).

3. The X Factor - all the "virus is bad" stuff is already baked into the fear narrative. There's not really anything more they can scare people with (just turning up the intensity on the current stuff). But if something goes viral in the opposite direction - some kind of human narrative that really focusses people's emotions and attention on the problems of lockdown (like Maureen from Barnsley but stronger), then public and political sentiment can shift on a dime. Think about how a few years ago, public and political attitudes to refugees shifted in an instant when the picture of that poor migrant child washed up dead on the beach went viral - something like that. That kind of thing is unpredictable - but if it happens, it will be huge.

5. There could be less emotional X-Factors as well - undeniable widespread scandals about testing, faking numbers, more egregious incidents of the Dominic Cummings/Neil Ferguson scandal variety etc.

Illimitible
Posts: 179
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:06 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Illimitible »

Everyone is forgetting the economy.

Q1 of lockdown the VAT receipts went negative. That means in aggregate that there was no profits for the quarter (more or less) and so nothing to tax.

There is a delay in publishing the VAT receipts to September and I think this is because they’re also terrible and they can’t work out how to spin it. But yet again - no profits to tax.

So it’s not a question of “if” theyll open the economy, but “can” they open it, OR “is” there anything left to open.

Continually locking us down delays the day of reckoning. And there WILL be a day of reckoning when the unwashed finally realise that their world has been destroyed for no purpose / on illegitimate grounds.

Illimitible
Posts: 179
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:06 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Illimitible »

Everyone is forgetting the economy.

Q1 of lockdown the VAT receipts went negative. That means in aggregate that there was no profits for the quarter (more or less) and so nothing to tax.

There is a delay in publishing the VAT receipts to September and I think this is because they’re also terrible and they can’t work out how to spin it. But yet again - no profits to tax.

So it’s not a question of “if” theyll open the economy, but “can” they open it, OR “is” there anything left to open.

Continually locking us down delays the day of reckoning. And there WILL be a day of reckoning when the unwashed finally realise that their world has been destroyed for no purpose / on illegitimate grounds.

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

Thank you for the interesting replies.

So, perhaps the three scenarios/options cover most of the possibilities. Perhaps each of them has a chance of happening.

What is really unclear to me is how the transition would take place to move from 1 to 2 or 3. Given where we currently how and how we got here I am not optimistic that it would be a clean and painless process.

Since my original post I have had more of a look round this site...

Encouraging to read about the Recovery initiative. Let us hope they they are allowed to enter into a mature debate. Looking at the report on this in the Daily Mail, there is a massive majority of people upticking the sceptical comments https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... l#comments

The Great Reset discussion on this forum is very interesting and contains a range of eloquently written perspectives. I suggest that the three scenarios/options I have mentioned above are still valid in their own right, however much what materialises may be influenced by any bigger picture.

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

Much has happened since the last post on this thread.

However, it is still unclear which scenario we will follow.

The main changes prompted by the imposition of lockdown 2 seem to be:

There is firm evidence that the justification for the lockdown was severely flawed.

Some of the MSM are now recognising this. It is very unusual to see the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph as the beacons of truth.

There are signs of emerging civil disobedience and civil unrest.

My earnest hope is that we tend towards something like scenario 2. I think that the next couple of weeks will provide a clearer indication.

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