OK, so what might happen next?

AfterAll
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:39 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by AfterAll »

Another possibility is improved treatment.

1) If the Spanish multi-centre followup trial for calcifediol (hydroxy-Vitamin D) for hospitalised patients https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04366908 turns out to be anywhere near as successful as the pilot study https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub then that would end the pandemic on its own.

2) Maybe hydroxychloroquine will be (re-)accepted as a safe, effective time-tested antiviral when administered in conventional doses early in the disease, now that its usefulness as a political weapon "as advocated by President Trump" is spent and as people notice that the map of countries that use it overlaps strongly with the map of countries with relatively very low death rates. https://c19study.com/countries.html

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

I agree After All, effective treatments could almost completely remove any case for lockdowns.

Please see one I am particularly optimistic about - Inhaled Interferon
I do not seem to be able to link to my thread on it - it is there in the Medicines sub-forum
Contains a link to a very informative lecture

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

It has been a couple of weeks, so time to bump this up and assess what has happened and whether anything may have changed.

Will mainly leave it to others to give their views, but will put in one thought of my own:

Leaving aside my personal feelings (I am appalled at the ideas being put forward) I am wondering whether the current discussion about Christmas arrangements, the decision made and the response to it could provide some guide to where we stand and how things will proceed.

The MSM are already bombarding us with subliminal messages to expect any Christmas truce to be paid for by perhaps 5 days of lockdown per day of truce. Will this be proposed, be mandated and will it be obeyed?

Splatt
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Splatt »

Government is in an echo chamber - its convinced lockdown works and everytime a lockdown fails to work its simply because we didnt do enough of them or for long enough.

The January lockdown has been planned since late summer - they just need an excuse to do it so the 1 off, 5 in Christmas "treat" is their attempt at that.

Ultimately i suspect their plan is lockdown for as much of the winter as possibly whilst saying "nearly there, just one more time, honest" whilst hoping to get everyone vaccinated in the summer where the disease, being entirely seasonal, isnt present anyway.

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

Perhaps a hint of less draconian measures in the briefing this evening/
Have they started to accept the realities?

*

Acknowledgement that the numbers are moving in the right direction (THAT IMPLIES that this was happening before Lockdown 2!)

Matt Hancock says the trajectory has changed in "all parts of England" and that we're "just at the point" where the flattening appears apparent.

Prof Van Tam adds that the ONS data is only up to 14 November so is "a few days behind where we are now" - and that he'd expect the growth of the virus in some regions to "turn" in more up-to-date data.

*

No real endorsement of the fear that has been spread about Christmas and an indication that they may wait and see what happens afterwards rather than impose a post Christmas lockdown

"Prof Jonathan Van Tam, responding to a question from LBC about Christmas, says "the government clearly wants to give us a break to some extent".

But in terms of there being a formula of one day of Christmas leading to a certain number of days in lockdown, as has been speculated, Prof Van Tam says "there are no magic numbers".

Instead there would be "proportionate measures" to allow people to have "a sensible Christmas".

If people don't comply, numbers will again go up, he says."

Nymeria
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:01 pm

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by Nymeria »

Thought provoking post, SilentP.

Whatever mandates or proposals (subliminal or otherwise) are put out there by the government and/or msm will be ignored by me. Haven't complied with anything thus far, and have no intention of doing so anytime soon.

swinchard
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:57 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by swinchard »

SilentP wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:53 pm Perhaps a hint of less draconian measures in the briefing this evening/
Have they started to accept the realities?
The briefing was almost devoid of the usual sabre rattling. Indeed it was almost reassuring.

OK, so what did it mean:
  • My theory is that Dom Cummings has been behind the campaign of fear, since he has seen this epidemic as a dry run for the big one.
  • Hence he has conducted the matter "for real", as if the IFR were (say) 10%, to check how much he could get out of the government system,
  • And, by this point, he has tested the government system to the point of destruction, and not found it lacking.
  • Indeed, it has been a brilliant Red Team demonstration of how far we could push the nation were a really bad virus to actually crop up.
  • So in that respect, the test worked, and we even put a cherry on the cake in the form of a viable vaccine.
  • The nation held up by the skin of its teeth.
  • The lockdowns held and the scientists (Vallance, Witty) did not crack up. They toed the line along with the NHS and the police, and even the army weighed in.
  • Its time to wind it in now, no use over egging it. Remember the last time the government over egged their dossier.
All the speakers acknowledged the appearance of a downtick, as if they were buttering us up for the glidepath to take us down. In my view they are satisfied the experiment worked. Lockdowns held, a vaccine was found, the Cummings Red Team verified Britain could sustain a proper Viral attack by something much worse than covid19. And cummings did as he said he would; he made himself redundant by Christmas.In a few weeks, they will start to notice their vaccine has apparently lowered R, and they'll have a single chance to unlock and save face. Sometime in mid spring, perhaps, when the daffodils come up.

swinchard
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:57 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by swinchard »

SilentP wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:07 pm There seem to be increasingly polarised opinions about lockdown -
Observation:SAGE/Dom Cummings invented this game for a much worse virus (e.g IFR 20%) than the one we actually have (IFR 0.26%). It's on his Blog:

https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/04/

Opinions are polarised because of the intermediate IFR of 0.26%. If the IFR were 20%, nobody would question lockdown. But this is a better test, since it pushes at the low limit of IFR which is similar to flu. This dry run has exposed how small a thing is needed to create near-blanket obedience in this nation, and shown how to control the liberal media.
perhaps we are approaching a significant point where something has to give? I am finding it hard to form a clear picture of what would happen then.
Because the IFR is so low, there is a small rebellion.
1. At some point the Government decides ...X, Y, whatever
At some point the government decides it can't get any more out of the test, so it rolls out the
vaccine (previously prepared for SARS1?), and stops the test. We've reached that point in this particular dry run of our readiness test for bio-warfare. And we are ready.Sweden would have been completely wiped out in a few weeks, along with America.

SARS1: just too lethal : https://theconversation.com/the-mysteri ... her-137583

swinchard
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:57 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by swinchard »

Splatt wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:05 pm Government is in an echo chamber
Partly agree with this. The government has been playing as if it really were a serious fight to the death with the virus.That is the part they have been acting out. But they have the same knowledge we have, it's too obvious, hence they are pretending not to know. If they admitted they know what we all know, the game would be over.They are now looking for a graceful exit, which will involve this vaccine. That is why Mr Hancock is pushing so very hard to get it started. He's close to making promises he might regret. They really want to stop the game now because pretending is tiring. They are sorry the plan has impinged on Christmas, since it could go against them big time, remember Maggie the Milk Snatcher; imagine Boris, the Christmas snatcher!
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/0qAAAOSw ... s-l500.jpg
The January lockdown
It would be too fishy if they suddenly just quit. They have to wind it down looking casual.

their plan is lockdown for as much of the winter as possible
The figures are showing a drastic turn down esp.in e.g Wales/north West. They will have to be careful or they could run out of cases prompting an emergency shutdown of the policy, that would not look casual. I think the dry run was very successful, from their point of view. They have demonstrated readiness for bio-terrorism and written an owners manual. A sharpish shutdown might fit the bill, but not too quick, it has to look right, or people might get suspicious. A soonish shutdown would assuage the 1922, and the red wallers etc.

I would not put too much faith in the seasonality, if I were them. It looked like that in June/July, I admit.But I think that was only half the story, the other half perhaps involved herd immunity and even lockdown.

SilentP
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:38 am

Re: OK, so what might happen next?

Post by SilentP »

Thank you for the thought provoking responses
(Nymeria - Please send my love to Arya)

Swinchard - I see you have posted similarly on another discussion. Although this discussion is focused more on the next stages, I wanted to say that I found the Dominic Cummings blog quite chilling. Are you a lone person with these views or do others share them?

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