Official calculator

Reliability of the modelling / how mamy excess deaths are due to COVID-19 / how many are infected / Infection Fatality Rate / etc.
thinksaboutit
Posts: 275
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Official calculator

Post by thinksaboutit »

Looking again at this calculator, it is clear that the result should be dependent on the prevalence of the virus, or other key elements of the pandemic.
So the absolute risk is meaningless. Relative risk may have value.

Splatt
Posts: 1089
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Official calculator

Post by Splatt »

Where do you get that from? Its abject rubbish.
ROSPA are giving the figures and relative risks for road accidents (Roughly 1 in 20,000).

My covid risk because im not old or vulnerable is 3x lower than that.

This is the proper qcovid algorithm.

We know covid (i) barely affects most people and (ii) is deadly to a know, small demographic.
Thats the whole point of the algorithm.

There's no such thing as an "average person" with a virus that hits a demographic so selectively.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 275
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Official calculator

Post by thinksaboutit »

Splatt wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:09 am Where do you get that from? Its abject rubbish.
ROSPA are giving the figures and relative risks for road accidents (Roughly 1 in 20,000).

My covid risk because im not old or vulnerable is 3x lower than that.

This is the proper qcovid algorithm.

We know covid (i) barely affects most people and (ii) is deadly to a know, small demographic.
Thats the whole point of the algorithm.

There's no such thing as an "average person" with a virus that hits a demographic so selectively.
Here are road deaths 2019 UK.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... 0to%202018

Do you disagree that risk of any person's death from covid was different between mid summer and over the latest peak? This is not reflected in this calculator, unless I am mistaken.

Splatt
Posts: 1089
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Official calculator

Post by Splatt »

No it wasn't except for a certain, tiny, known demographic.

And thats the whole point. SARs2 only affects a tiny demographic.

And for all groups IFR and CFR has dropped as we developed better treatments.

You're arguing against the governments own covid risk algorithm and ROSPA now.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 275
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Official calculator

Post by thinksaboutit »

Splatt wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:17 pm No it wasn't except for a certain, tiny, known demographic.

And thats the whole point. SARs2 only affects a tiny demographic.

And for all groups IFR and CFR has dropped as we developed better treatments.

You're arguing against the governments own covid risk algorithm and ROSPA now.
It looks like I am!

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