so, is it ok now

Reliability of the modelling / how mamy excess deaths are due to COVID-19 / how many are infected / Infection Fatality Rate / etc.
fon
Posts: 1172
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

so, is it ok now

Post by fon »

so, I'd like to know is it probably ok now
to assume the tide is going right out,
and won't back, like it did, again...
have we got enough immunity, anyhow, by hook or by crook
or might it come right back again full strength even now, if we relax too much?

Speedstick
Posts: 487
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:27 pm

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by Speedstick »

Got that old Covid lens out again l see Fon.
For goodness sake what about all the mental health issues this nonsense is causing, what about all the kids lives destroyed, what about the damage to the younger generations education and their employment prospects, what about all the destroyed businesses, what about the suicides, what about the increased domestic violence, what about the debt, what about the marriage break ups further harming kids.
Put the bloody Covid lens away Fon!!!!!

JohnK
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:47 pm

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by JohnK »

No known cure for ‘defensive bureaucracy’ or crass over reaction, unfortunately. At least, they’re not going to shoot themselves in the foot, so they’ll wheedle out of it somehow.

Splatt
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by Splatt »

Its a seasonal virus, it wont come back now.
It'll come back to late autumn just like last year.
Cases will rise, very few people will die, restrictions will be reintroduced (assuming they were ever removed in the first place).

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MikeAustin
Posts: 1032
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:27 pm

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by MikeAustin »

Splatt wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:03 pm Its a seasonal virus, it wont come back now.
True, but misattributions can endure. Should there happen to be any knock-on fatalities due to lockdown measures, 'vaccines' etc, the unscrupulous ones will have a target for falsehoods. They have done it before and they will do it again.

Max
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri May 22, 2020 6:24 pm

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by Max »

Agrees with Splatt. It clearly can't come back as severely as the first or second wave as most of the dry timber will have either been treated with fire retardant (vaccine) or already burnt.

However, the figure which will drive the government is not the IFR or the case rate for that matter, it is the hospitalisation rate, because that is what drives all the NHS threats of chaos and collapse. And at a rough estimate the hospitalisation rate is around 2% of infections.

Now if we assume by Autumn that we have hit around 90% immunity (either from previous exposure, or vaccination) then that nevertheless still leaves around 6 million people who could be vulnerable to the disease (or more likely, to variants of which they have not developed immunity).

If all of them catch it at the same time then we have 2% = 120,000 hospitalisations, which would be worse than anything so far. Now of course they can't really all catch it at exactly the same time so at any given time probably a figure of 5% infected might be a reasonable worst case. But this is still 6000 hospitalisations, which (whilst not as bad as the first or second wave) is likely to cause the covid zealots to go into panic mode. So is it all over? Reluctantly I would have to say no.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 529
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by thinksaboutit »

MikeAustin wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:21 pm
Splatt wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:03 pm Its a seasonal virus, it wont come back now.
True, but misattributions can endure. Should there happen to be any knock-on fatalities due to lockdown measures, 'vaccines' etc, the unscrupulous ones will have a target for falsehoods. They have done it before and they will do it again.
Do you believe vaccines cause net fatalities? i.e. kill more than they save

fon
Posts: 1172
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by fon »

thinksaboutit wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:51 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:21 pm
Splatt wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:03 pm Its a seasonal virus, it wont come back now.
True, but misattributions can endure. Should there happen to be any knock-on fatalities due to lockdown measures, 'vaccines' etc, the unscrupulous ones will have a target for falsehoods. They have done it before and they will do it again.
Do you believe vaccines cause net fatalities? i.e. kill more than they save
I d not know who you are asking.

I don't believe that for one second. it's irresponsible hogwash.

Splatt
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by Splatt »

Max wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:55 pm However, the figure which will drive the government is not the IFR or the case rate for that matter, it is the hospitalisation rate, because that is what drives all the NHS threats of chaos and collapse. And at a rough estimate the hospitalisation rate is around 2% of infections.
I wish that were true but as can be seen now and last year is a fixation on getting *cases* low not hospitalisation.

If it were the latter we'd already be entirely back to normal.

With a vaccinated/protected population there'll be very few deaths (still some due to the positive within 28 days nonsense) and very low hospitalisation but there WILL be a big rise in cases.
Even though in the real world this doesn't matter i suspect this'll be used as a reason for restrictions to come back. I also suspect vax-pass will roll out then NO this summer.
The govt will feel its case is stronger with higher cases so has more chance winning a vote.

The autumn peak might be something relatively unique to the UK. By Autumn most countries using the mRNA vaccines will have finished their program and due to the almost total reduction of infection and likely transmission will have true herd immunity so no spike.

We're using a main vaccine thats very poor at doing that and of a low enough efficacy and variant resistance it makes herd immunity mathematically impossible so we'll never do anything other than temporarily suppress cases.

Max
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri May 22, 2020 6:24 pm

Re: so, is it ok now

Post by Max »

"I wish that were true but as can be seen now and last year is a fixation on getting *cases* low not hospitalisation."

I agree to some extent but think this may well go to the heart of the debate within government - between the 'zero coviders' who define 'safety' (and therefore the only condition under which full return to 'normality' can be allowed) as zero cases (in other words, never), and those (of which there will still be large numbers in the Tory party) who argue if hospitalisation numbers are low, 'what are we still making a fuss (and spending huge amounts of public money) about?'

Unfortunately as you say, as the ultimate efficacy of the (in particular, AZ) vaccine may not be high enough to deliver full herd immunity, this means there will be enough cases (*and* hospitalisations) to keep the disease in the news (unless something bigger comes along in the meantime like a terrorist outbreak, war, riots or financial collapse). And whilst it remains the #1 topic of discussion, all other priorities will be ignored. And the list of parties with an interest in maintaining restrictions (from businesses receiving loans, handouts and business rates breaks, to internet based firms benefitting from higher traffic, to all companies involved with testing and tracing, to all the professional classes working from home, to furloughed employees with no jobs to go back to, to even benefit claimants getting an extra £20 per week) grows ever longer and more entrenched. So your conclusion is probably correct.

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