Vaccine Claims

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
Tiers4Fears
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Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:20 pm

Vaccine Claims

Post by Tiers4Fears »

Sorry if this is a really dumb post or has been answered elsewhere but I really don't understand what the headline vaccine claims are based on.

'Covid vaccines cut risk of serious illness by 80% in over-80s'

But if Covid has worked its way through the weak members in that particular cohort or the seasonal impact of the virus is beginning to decrease - how do you know those people wouldn't have not got ill anyway - without said vaccine?

What are these claims based on? where is the control group? I mean there can't be one. We can't go back in time and give those in the over 80 category who died the vaccine and see if they would have lived. And those in the over 80 category who have had the vaccine are not being injected with Covid to see how they respond? so I 'm a bit lost.

Isn't this the classic correlation doesn't imply causation?

For example, if in the summer (when the seasonal nature of Covid has worn off) we gave everyone over 80 eight ibuprofen a day and no one died of Covid - we could claim eight ibuprofen a day reduces the chance of death from Covid by 100% - could we not?

I'm probably missing the obvious but can anyone help me out here?

thinksaboutit
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by thinksaboutit »

The paper release by PHE has the data and analysis.

Splatt
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by Splatt »

Not quite the case. A control can be IFR/CFRs in unvaccinated of those age groups prior to it starting.

If a reduction of IFR/CFR is observed between pre and post vaccination you can make a link there. Treatments havent changed much or at all since November for example.
The biggest boosts were early summer when we discovered ventilation was killing people, proning worked and then Dexamethasone.


There's also the relative rates of death that are decreasing in vaccinated cohorts far more rapidly than non-vaccinated.

For the first time we're seeing a decoupling between cases and deaths emerging in the admittedly very early data.

Its all exactly the pattern we'd expect to see if partial vaccination were starting to kick in.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by MikeAustin »

Splatt wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:23 am There's also the relative rates of death that are decreasing in vaccinated cohorts far more rapidly than non-vaccinated.
As has been shown before here from the weekly deaths figures, there have been increases in deaths in step with vaccinations in the 80+ cohort before the decrease started. This is after removing the seasonal effects. Of course, the government hail the decreases in deaths while finding lame excuses (such as old age etc) for the prior increases.

These excess deaths have occurred predominantly in care homes and hospitals but not at home. Care home residents were well-protected for months before this. Deaths started rolling off as there were fewer newly-vaccinated residents and the vulnerable has passed away.

It is worth watching the interview with Joel Smalley here. With some elegant mathematical modelling, he has matched pandemic figures for 100+ countries. He identifies deaths January-February that appear to be related to external factors - and the only factor that fits the bill is vaccinations.

Another obscuring factor is that those who are on their last legs - extremely vulnerable and already on their way out - will not be vaccinated. And they will likely be misattributed to covid-19. This will give a false skew to the apparent effects of vaccines.

Fortunately, evidence of the same effect for under 80s is not so noticeable. But I await tomorrow's weekly deaths from ONS.

Splatt
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by Splatt »

MikeAustin wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:36 am As has been shown before here from the weekly deaths figures, there have been increases in deaths in step with vaccinations in the 80+ cohort before the decrease started. This is after removing the seasonal effects. Of course, the government hail the decreases in deaths while finding lame excuses (such as old age etc) for the prior increases.
Except it hasn't. Based on extremely poor selection of data with a pre-conceived notion of what the desired result was.

There's absolutely nothing suggesting an increased rate and for actual sickness the rate of decline of vaccinated cohorts in deaths and hospital admissions is starting to show fairly well.

Tiers4Fears
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Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:20 pm

Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by Tiers4Fears »

Thanks so much for the replies to my slightly impetuous post, I appreciate the detailed responses more than you could ever realise and I'm learning so much from this forum. I was kind of hoping Splatt would reply as I've become a bit of a Splatt fan boy. Not that I don't appreciate the other responses too and I had previously watched the video MikeAustin referred to which was eye opening.

Also the stuff on another post about the vaccine (if you can call it that) targeting such a narrow part of the virus, something we've never done before and the potential implications of that has blown my mind and I'm still trying to process it to be honest, totally out of my depth here being an economics major!

I did see the graph on the BBC which showed the differences between the decline in death rates for different ages, it just didn't look that impressive and wasn't explained as well on here so thanks again.

It does seem like propaganda to me as everything seems to support the dominant narrative no questions asked. No qualifications, such as this suggests the vaccine is working but there could be other reasons or some level of coincidence. I guess it would be interesting if we had data on those over 80 who refused the vaccine, although this is a small sample I imagine. Or if we could find a country that was similar to the UK in a similar place in terms of the spread of the virus and population, seasons etc where they were less advanced in giving the vaccine to the over 80s - of course difficult to find. Are death rates declining there just as fast?

My gut tells me I shouldn't take this vaccine for many reasons - but I know I'm going to end up doing so as I want to travel and erm have a job to support my family. And when the MSM (self flagellation I know!) this morning are saying vaccine passports are no different to having to show ID to get into a night club we all know where this rolling stone is going!

But thanks for putting me straight, although I'm not entirely convinced, this is a skeptics website after all :)

Nullius in verba!

CoronanationStreet
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by CoronanationStreet »

Splatt wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:23 am Not quite the case. A control can be IFR/CFRs in unvaccinated of those age groups prior to it starting.

If a reduction of IFR/CFR is observed between pre and post vaccination you can make a link there. Treatments havent changed much or at all since November for example.
The biggest boosts were early summer when we discovered ventilation was killing people, proning worked and then Dexamethasone.


There's also the relative rates of death that are decreasing in vaccinated cohorts far more rapidly than non-vaccinated.

For the first time we're seeing a decoupling between cases and deaths emerging in the admittedly very early data.

Its all exactly the pattern we'd expect to see if partial vaccination were starting to kick in.
I wondered on this (unscientifically) given how many over 80s died last year the ones who are left more likely to be healthier anyway and more likely the vaccine benefits them?

I think I read something suggesting we had weaker flu seasons in the period upto winter 2019/20 which meant we had more "dry tinder" when the virus arrived (although that may have been superseded by later analysis)

StPiosCafe
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by StPiosCafe »

CoronanationStreet wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:03 pm
Splatt wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:23 am there's also the relative rates of death that are decreasing in vaccinated cohorts far more rapidly than non-vaccinated.

For the first time we're seeing a decoupling between cases and deaths emerging in the admittedly very early data.

Its all exactly the pattern we'd expect to see if partial vaccination were starting to kick in.
There is a report on the pfizer and oxford operational efficacy:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new- ... der-adults

This fella chats about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3otWaBrvEc&t=279s
Turns out a single dose of either vaccine stop 80% of hospitalizations
And 1 jab of Oxford prevents 73 of symptomatic disease
.This is all about the UK variant mostly..

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MikeAustin
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by MikeAustin »

Splatt wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:54 am
MikeAustin wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:36 am As has been shown before here from the weekly deaths figures, there have been increases in deaths in step with vaccinations in the 80+ cohort before the decrease started. This is after removing the seasonal effects. Of course, the government hail the decreases in deaths while finding lame excuses (such as old age etc) for the prior increases.
Except it hasn't. Based on extremely poor selection of data with a pre-conceived notion of what the desired result was.

There's absolutely nothing suggesting an increased rate and for actual sickness the rate of decline of vaccinated cohorts in deaths and hospital admissions is starting to show fairly well.
No pre-conceived idea at all Splatt! There appears to be a discrepancy - something that needs explaining. Vaccinations is the only possibility in the running as far as I can see. Do you have any other data that I might select instead of my 'extremely poor selection'? Something that represents an intervention, at the same time, in all care homes, and hospitals, in the same cohorts?

Did you watch the Joel Smalley video? He, also, was very reluctant to come out against vaccinations but that was the only explanation he could find. His analysis is much more thorough than mine.

Splatt
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by Splatt »

There's just no link at all. Trying to fit any sort of curve/graph to those doesnt come up with anything at all.
It doesnt tally with US/Israel and other global data either.
The one good fit that is present for deaths is a ~19 day lag of cases.

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