Vaccine efficiency

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
swedenborg
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:36 pm

Vaccine efficiency

Post by swedenborg »

I published below yesterday in the BTL. Using this diminished forum as this is very disturbing for the UK vaccine roll out. According to these German figured 99% of elderly in the UK have essentially received a placebo vaccine with side effects. This German finding must be disputed by UK figures asap by an easy done antibody study which should have been done yesterday.
UK is doing half of the world’s genome sequencing but hasn’t produced something like the German study as far as I know. You would think it was of the utmost importance considering the unorthodox vaccine scheduling in the UK of the mRNA vaccines.



Sobering facts from Germany. Compare antibodies post vaccine <60 and >80. And this was after second dose(not the first as in UK) but see the amazing low figures after 1 st dose
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 066v1.full

Age-dependent immune response to the Biontech/Pfizer BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination

“While the majority of participants in both groups produced specific IgG antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, titers were significantly lower in elderly participants. Although the increment of antibody levels after the second immunization was higher in elderly participants, the absolute mean titer of this group remained lower than the <60 group. After the second vaccination, 31.3 % of the elderly had no detectable neutralizing antibodies in contrast to the younger group, in which only 2.2% had no detectable neutralizing antibodies.”

“We next determined the neutralization capacity in our cohort after the first and second dose of vaccination. At 17—19 days after the first vaccination, the majority of participants, regardless of their age, failed to display neutralizing antibody titers. In the group of younger vaccines, 16.1 % displayed neutralizing antibodies with titers ranging between 1:10 to 1:2560. In the group of elderly vaccinees, only 1.2 % had developed neutralizing antibodies after the first vaccination “

Standupforfreedom
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:54 am
Location: near Farnham

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by Standupforfreedom »

Hi everyone,

Here is the link to a very interesting and informative TV discussion programme on Austrian TV, which I have translated into English to make it available here. It's two lawyers and a biologist talking about the legal situation, vaccine efficiency and licencing, and side effects.

It would be great if more people had access to this information, so please share it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQ9aU20-RAM

thinksaboutit
Posts: 562
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by thinksaboutit »

swedenborg wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:01 am I published below yesterday in the BTL. Using this diminished forum as this is very disturbing for the UK vaccine roll out. According to these German figured 99% of elderly in the UK have essentially received a placebo vaccine with side effects. This German finding must be disputed by UK figures asap by an easy done antibody study which should have been done yesterday.
UK is doing half of the world’s genome sequencing but hasn’t produced something like the German study as far as I know. You would think it was of the utmost importance considering the unorthodox vaccine scheduling in the UK of the mRNA vaccines.



Sobering facts from Germany. Compare antibodies post vaccine <60 and >80. And this was after second dose(not the first as in UK) but see the amazing low figures after 1 st dose
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 066v1.full

Age-dependent immune response to the Biontech/Pfizer BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination

“While the majority of participants in both groups produced specific IgG antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, titers were significantly lower in elderly participants. Although the increment of antibody levels after the second immunization was higher in elderly participants, the absolute mean titer of this group remained lower than the <60 group. After the second vaccination, 31.3 % of the elderly had no detectable neutralizing antibodies in contrast to the younger group, in which only 2.2% had no detectable neutralizing antibodies.”

“We next determined the neutralization capacity in our cohort after the first and second dose of vaccination. At 17—19 days after the first vaccination, the majority of participants, regardless of their age, failed to display neutralizing antibody titers. In the group of younger vaccines, 16.1 % displayed neutralizing antibodies with titers ranging between 1:10 to 1:2560. In the group of elderly vaccinees, only 1.2 % had developed neutralizing antibodies after the first vaccination “
Please explain how you got your "According to these German figured 99% of elderly in the UK have essentially received a placebo vaccine with side effects." conclusion from.!

Since less than 99% of any age group has been vaccinated and only a sub-set of these had the Biotech vaccine, this is impossible.

swedenborg
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:36 pm

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by swedenborg »

In the article only 1.2 % had antibodies to the Pfizer vaccine after the first dose according to the article.Since the UK schedule is only one dose Pfizer first to as many as possible and later the second dose, I am only saying that according to these German figures 99 % of the only once elderly vaccinated in the UK coud have no antibodies,which are supposed to be protective.
Of course there are caveats, we don't know if the antibody level is the same in the UK after Pfizer 1st dose,and they used >80 as a group..of elderly,but difference Germany and the UK?
Just a provoking argument that they have received a placebo with side effects but these amazing figures from this German study must be quickly dismissed or confirmed with UK antibody studies.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 562
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by thinksaboutit »

swedenborg wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:08 pm In the article only 1.2 % had antibodies to the Pfizer vaccine after the first dose according to the article.Since the UK schedule is only one dose Pfizer first to as many as possible and later the second dose, I am only saying that according to these German figures 99 % of the only once elderly vaccinated in the UK coud have no antibodies,which are supposed to be protective.
Of course there are caveats, we don't know if the antibody level is the same in the UK after Pfizer 1st dose,and they used >80 as a group..of elderly,but difference Germany and the UK?
Just a provoking argument that they have received a placebo with side effects but these amazing figures from this German study must be quickly dismissed or confirmed with UK antibody studies.
Yes, but the assessment time for detection of the antibodies was selected as 17 to 19 days. This is very close to the vaccination time.
So the report shows that younger people develop antibodies more quickly than older people. This is obvious.

The results are so far away from the efficacy conclusions from the clinical trials, that it should draw great suspicion.

See the following article on single dose efficacy after 1st dose.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

guy153
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by guy153 »

swedenborg wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:01 am I published below yesterday in the BTL. Using this diminished forum as this is very disturbing for the UK vaccine roll out. According to these German figured 99% of elderly in the UK have essentially received a placebo vaccine with side effects.
It's definitely sobering but I wouldn't describe it as a placebo.

As they say in the paper:

"By comparing similar-sized cohorts of vaccinees aged < 60 years and > 80 years, we found that more than 30% of elderly vaccinees did not attain neutralizing antibody responses after their second vaccination. Nevertheless, recent studies show that even after the first vaccination, severe courses of COVID-19 are attenuated"

There's no link into the references for that claim that severe courses are attenuated... Although it sounds plausible. However 70% getting neutralizing antibodies is actually not bad for a vaccine used on people this old.

You don't need sterilizing levels of antibodies for a vaccine to be considered successful (and about 40% of everyone, including young people, don't get them from the AZ vaccine).

At least as important for protection from severe disease is the T-cells the vaccine gives you. This will also be diminished in old people-- that's very likely to be a large part of the reason why they get severe Covid in the first place.

If you're running low on naive T-cells you will have a poor response to the vaccine but it also puts you at a high risk from the disease. So it's still probably worth having the vaccine.

leicestersq
Posts: 35
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:38 pm

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by leicestersq »

Do we have any figures from the UK to tell us how many people are dying of Covid after being vaccinated?

Covid figures are falling around the world, and yet in the UK despite the success of the vaccination rollout program, or apparent success, it doesnt seem to me that we are doing especially well where it matters, numbers of deaths.

Perhaps someone could put me right on that?

Splatt
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by Splatt »

I'd be wary of any research simply measuring antibody titres for several reasons.

To put it simply, immunity isn't as simple as a certain level of ABs. Its way way more complex than that.

Neutralising tests are fine but very narrow in focus.

You don't need full neutralisation for a vaccine to work. On a sliding scale lower levels still function to stop most of the virus to the extent it either can't get a foothold to launch an infection at all or if it does is very small, short lived and quickly knocked out.

A lot of these AB tests have a defined threshold below which they say "it doesnt work" or "not present". This is somewhat arbitrary and useful for the lab but not overly useful for discussing immunity.

After any immune event you get an initial spike in various types of ABs which wane over time. That isn't a problem, it just means memory cells take over from there more long term and can/will ramp up if needed. This spike and decline generally happens over a few weeks or months.

Also let's not forget T-cell responses which all along have been thought to provide a lot or even most resistance to this (and the cross immunity seen in asia). Most of these tests dont look for various types of T cells at all.
We know the mRNA and vector based vaccines (AZ/Pfizer here) produce good T-cell responses. Again these are vital but wont be shown in many studies looking at other types. This is probably where the protection against severe disease comes from.

TLDR; - there are many types of immune cells each with different roles in different phases of infection. Many studies focus on a few of these and say nothing about the overall effect.

I do have reservations about the AZ but for different reasons. The trials were terrible producing data of such low quality the FDA and Swiss wont authorise it at all yet and others dont like the age breakdown. IT was messy, huge wide CIs in the data. It works but the data is messy.
My main issue with it technically is they still don't seem to have fixed the issue of vector derived immunity which means we're not "learning" the spike as well as intended and booster doses are even less effective again. Also likely why Sputnik which is essentially the same thing but 2 vector seems to be more effective and why AZ are doing mixed trials.
Most AZ protection against severe disease i guess is derived from the T cell responses. The notably very large different in protection against *infection* between AZ and Pfizer (60 v 90%) is probably a result of the vector approach in my view.
Its not a placebo but if the focus is now on "cases" its not going to be anywhere near as useful in bringing down cases.

jotheboat
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:34 am

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by jotheboat »

leicestersq wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 12:32 pm Do we have any figures from the UK to tell us how many people are dying of Covid after being vaccinated?

Covid figures are falling around the world, and yet in the UK despite the success of the vaccination rollout program, or apparent success, it doesnt seem to me that we are doing especially well where it matters, numbers of deaths.

Perhaps someone could put me right on that?
They seem to be dropping quite rapidly [url]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/url] - UK reporting of anything covid is not normally optimistic!

Splatt
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccine efficiency

Post by Splatt »

jotheboat wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 2:39 pm They seem to be dropping quite rapidly [url]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/url] - UK reporting of anything covid is not normally optimistic!
The rate of decrease is also higher in the vaccinated groups.

We're starting to see a decoupling of cases and deaths.

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