Vaccine vs Covid itself

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
guy153
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by guy153 »

Fingal wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:10 pm
guy153 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:36 am
In the UK we've had 101 deaths of those under 44 without pre-existing conditions and 542 under 60.
Were the (alleged) vaccine deaths in people with pre-existing conditions too?

In which case, you should correct your figure to zero, because these people have no statistical significance in your view.
Everyone has statistical signficance.

It's about comparing risk. If you have pre-existing conditions work out your odds (qCovid is good for this) and you'll probably decide to have the vaccine.

It may also be that when we find out more about the CVST cases that we will understand better the risk factors for that. I've heard it may affect women in a particular age range more. But there's too little data. If that were the case then it means the risk is lower for everyone else. So if you were a healthy 35y old woman you might be better off to skip the vaccine.

Splatt
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by Splatt »

guy153 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:47 am The research to work out how to do this would require making lots of chimeric viruses in a BSL4 lab somewhere... There might be some risks associated with that.
Indeed. It might escape, infect people in the city it resides in and go global or something. It could cause a global pandemic lasting a year or more...

Allegedly.

Despite the odd WHO "investigations" its a theory that cant be discounted.

guy153
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by guy153 »

Splatt wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:37 pm
guy153 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:47 am The research to work out how to do this would require making lots of chimeric viruses in a BSL4 lab somewhere... There might be some risks associated with that.
Indeed. It might escape, infect people in the city it resides in and go global or something. It could cause a global pandemic lasting a year or more...

Allegedly.

Despite the odd WHO "investigations" its a theory that cant be discounted.
No absolute proof (and may never be) but the balance of probabilities is on the side of a lab leak.

We know Shi and others were doing research involving creating actual viable fully-fledged chimeric coronaviruses (not messing around with pseudovirus platforms) to explore host range in the US in 2015. They published a paper in Nature all about it (which is a very interesting paper quite apart from the controversy):

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

About this time the US put a moratorium on such research and it's very likely it moved to the Wuhan lab (where Shi was working).

Then people have uncovered things like this:

https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9819304

"We will use S protein sequence data, infectious clone technology, in vitro and in vivo infection experiments"

Infectious clone technology and in vivo infection experiments means making real viruses and infecting animals with them (probably transgenic mice, perhaps hamsters or monkeys). Also interesting to look at who the project leader is on that page. I think he's involved with the WHO whitewash sorry investigation.

So very likely they were making viruses a lot like SARS-CoV-2 in the lab right where the outbreak started of a new virus whose spike was remarkably well-adapted to humans right off the hop, in the middle of a city a long way from any actual bat caves.

It's probably the backbone from a hastily-deleted bat virus with a modified spike: perhaps the spike from a different virus, or perhaps they just added the furin cleavage site. Probably small changes as they would have been doing controlled experiments after all.

Lots of people trying to find actual physical evidence, like the suspicious CGGCGG dimer in the FCS. It is a bit supicious, but also could have arisen naturally. Then there's a bunch of other rather speculative stuff along similar lines. The whole point of the research was to simulate what might happen naturally so it's impossible to tell just from looking at the virus itself whether it did.

Splatt
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by Splatt »

Very unlikely to ever find out the truth but if nothing else its shown a complete mess of admin China side.

The FCS as you mention is very odd.
Random viruses being renamed and sequences being used for 2 different viruses in papers...
As is the reused, renamed sequences from the various sampling missions. Add that to the ones in the freezer that apparently weren't sampled then were and so on its either a cover up or its a horrific mess.
Neither of which is good for a BSL lab !

Certainly can't rule out escape of a previously unknown virus or possibly even gain-of-function research.
Leaks can and have happened and the lack of any local reservoir or index cases in the area is odd as well.

The WHO "investigation" was a joke, non-experts being escorted by Chinese minders with complete control over who they speak to and what they ask.
The origin report is delayed again as apparently China is arguing over every single sentence in it. I have zero faith in its findings.

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