Asymptomatic transmission

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
Jane G
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:29 pm

Asymptomatic transmission

Post by Jane G »

Why is this rearing it's ugly head again? I thought it had been well and truly put to bed; everywhere apart from the Doom ads, anyway.

Today I have heard Helen Wakeley (Wateley?) AND Boris expound on how they hadn't fully realised the danger of asymptomatic transmission.

Has there been some study/ evidence come to light that I've missed? Or is it just the same old same old when they need to justify movement of goalposts again?

To clarify: I'm aware of PRE-symptomatic transmission in a narrow window of time, but was under the impression the other sort was vanishingly rare.

Sprout
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:20 pm

Re: Asymptomatic transmission

Post by Sprout »

Jane G wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:54 am Why is this rearing it's ugly head again? ...

To clarify: I'm aware of PRE-symptomatic transmission in a narrow window of time, but was under the impression the other sort was vanishingly rare.
Is it a consequence of the Government running a prophylactic vaccination programme with the risk of creating a population of asymptomatic / mild symptom carriers?

(To clarify: I am aware of observation/correlational studies from Scotland and Israel indicating some drop in transmission, and the mechanistic argument related to lower viral load.)

fon
Posts: 1208
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Asymptomatic transmission

Post by fon »

Jane G wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:54 am Why is this rearing it's ugly head again? I thought it had been well and truly put to bed; everywhere apart from the Doom ads, anyway.Today I have heard Helen Wakeley (Wateley?) AND Boris expound on how they hadn't fully realised the danger of asymptomatic transmission.
I noticed that, and it jarred and alarmed me, Boris said it in the presser yesterday.It is a sign that:

a) the idea of asymptomatic transmission was, in the first place anathema to them. They would have hated and rejected it initially.

b) after a long time they were finally persuaded it was a real thing.

c) and a long time after that, it became obvious the idea is over blown.

d)Having invested emotionally in believing in Asymptomatic transmission,

e) it will now take an inordinately large emotional investment to downsize their fears.

Proper scientists, like me, are inured to continuous reevaluation, we do it all the time as one theory is over thrown by another. People like Boris and Helen have a hard time with it, they spend their whole lives, being invested in old ideas, playing catch up.

Splatt
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Asymptomatic transmission

Post by Splatt »

Jane G wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:54 am Why is this rearing it's ugly head again? I thought it had been well and truly put to bed; everywhere apart from the Doom ads, anyway.

Today I have heard Helen Wakeley (Wateley?) AND Boris expound on how they hadn't fully realised the danger of asymptomatic transmission.

Has there been some study/ evidence come to light that I've missed? Or is it just the same old same old when they need to justify movement of goalposts again?

To clarify: I'm aware of PRE-symptomatic transmission in a narrow window of time, but was under the impression the other sort was vanishingly rare.
Its real and it exists.
A truly asymptomatic person is, depending on study, maybe 3-5x less likely to transmit the virus but they can still do it. There are many studies out about this now.

There's also the issue that its impossible to differentiate between pre and asymptomatic cases at that particular point in time. By the time you find out, theyve already gone through most of their infectious period.

As Fon said though, asymptomatic transmission was known and proven in Asia in *January 2020*.
The UK advisors utterly refused to believe it at all. Maybe a case of "not discovered here" or arrogance but either way they pretended it didnt exist even with Asian governments screaming about t.
As a result they made some huge cockups.

Then when it finally dawned on them it WAS possible they went full scale the other way - made it out to be a much much bigger problem than it actually was. They're STILL stuck in that over-corrected mindset to this day.

Jane G
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:29 pm

Re: Asymptomatic transmission

Post by Jane G »

So there has been no 'new' research uncovering an unsuspected source of transmission, then.
It just seemed alarming to hear it twice in a single day, especially when my senses are irritated hearing the murmuring 'voice of conscience' ads planting the seeds of doubt a dozen times a day - tempting me to waste time typing a fruitless complaint to the ASA only to have it batted away.
Thank you to those of you taking the time to reply.

Splatt
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Asymptomatic transmission

Post by Splatt »

I'm still not convinced anyone knows the exact ration of asymptomatic cases.

Given we have no idea from PCR who is infected or merely exposed we really cant tell from a positive PCR if someone is asymptomatic and infected or just not infected at all.

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