Booster shots

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
fon
Posts: 1208
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Booster shots

Post by fon »

It's going to be interesting how they manage the booster shots project. Variants can come to light at any time.

Work to target a vaccine on a particular feature of the variant can only commence once the variant has come to light and after sufficient time has passed to characterise the behaviour and structure of the variant.

And even once a variant has been found and characterised, it will take time to modify a vaccine to suit it, then it will take a period to synthesize the new vaccine and another period to trial the new vaccines to ensure they work. Even then, other delays occur, manufacture, approvals, roll outs. It will be necessary to do a lot of redundant parallel planning and development. It's going to cost a lot.

With all these random occurrences, dependencies and variable delays and costs, it's going to be tricky to optimise the booster shots project. They are going to go through a lot of white board space to crystalise all these plans. There is a lot hanging on the booster shots project, the work done so far will feed into it, there is little margin for error, but it will be a miracle if it all works out optimally. Project management is a hard life.

Fingal
Posts: 122
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:11 pm

Re: Booster shots

Post by Fingal »

fon wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:56 pm It's going to be interesting how they manage the booster shots project. Variants can come to light at any time.
Yes, and this is the reason why, of all industries, it's travel that's hardest to get back to normal.

Continued restrictions both reduce the instance of new variants, and give us a sporting chance of track & tracing outbreaks before they spread.

We don't know enough about the new variant threat to judge. But it has to be a possibility that travel restrictions will stay for years, if only to enable all other sectors to operate freely.

Nobody
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:05 pm

Re: Booster shots

Post by Nobody »

According to Mike Yeadon this is all a big con. The smallest variance so far has been 0.3% and the immune systems of those who had the original Sars, which was 80% the same (so 20% different), can recognise Sars-Cov 2. They are already planning the new vaccines.
You can listen to him here:

https://brandnewtube.com/watch/ex-pfize ... oicPr.html

This has just been a way for pharmaceuticals companies to open up a huge adult market. I have not had a vaccine since I was a baby and, back there, there were only a small number. This whole fiasco has been the use of institutional apparatus to bring about conditional freedoms so as to force vaccinations in order to create a massive global market from which they can make huge sums of money. Skip the vaccine or your life will be regulated until you die.

JohnK
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:47 pm

Re: Booster shots

Post by JohnK »

Not much different to anti-flu ones, in effect. The efficacy varies from year to year for similar reasons; they're always guessing, to some extent.

Splatt
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Booster shots

Post by Splatt »

Cant see it being a major issue.
This is a slow mutating virus so once prevalence is low the mRNA vaccines can certainly keep up.
Most likely it'll just be a booster to the very vulnerable in line with a flu jab each year.
The rest of the people will be fine partial immune memory and T-cell response will stop them getting very sick again just as Flu.

Oxford/AZ is more of an issue as unlike the others its already know its useless against even single mutations so becomes obsolete almost immediately. mRNAs show good efficacy against the same mutations.

The other issue with it is the chance a booster simply wont work at all unless they change the vector. And if they do that then you're looking at new clinical trials each time so obviously a huge time lag. That and the 4-6 months it takes from creation to large scale production for it.

The way i see this panning out is mRNA vaccinated vulnerable might receive a booster every few years as required as part of their annual health checks.

Oxford/Johnson *if* anyone is still using them in a years time will likely see annual.

jmc
Posts: 403
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 am

Re: Booster shots

Post by jmc »

fon wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:56 pm It's going to be interesting how they manage the booster shots project. Variants can come to light at any time.

Work to target a vaccine on a particular feature of the variant can only commence once the variant has come to light and after sufficient time has passed to characterise the behaviour and structure of the variant.

And even once a variant has been found and characterised, it will take time to modify a vaccine to suit it, then it will take a period to synthesize the new vaccine and another period to trial the new vaccines to ensure they work. Even then, other delays occur, manufacture, approvals, roll outs. It will be necessary to do a lot of redundant parallel planning and development. It's going to cost a lot.

With all these random occurrences, dependencies and variable delays and costs, it's going to be tricky to optimise the booster shots project. They are going to go through a lot of white board space to crystalise all these plans. There is a lot hanging on the booster shots project, the work done so far will feed into it, there is little margin for error, but it will be a miracle if it all works out optimally. Project management is a hard life.
It just going to be like the annual flu shot. Low to moderate efficacy with whole age groups showing little or no positive health effect. Like old people. The annual flu shot is considered a huge success if the efficacy gets above 40% in a particular year. Usually its closer to 20%.

The big difference is that there is a very real health benefit to younger people from the flu shot. Influenza is a real morality risk for under 55's. There are no health benefits with current and any future SARs CoV 2 vaccines for the under 55's. The SARs CoV 2 vaccines serious adverse effect morality rate is around 70x (so far) that of influenza vaccines and although mostly very old sick people are dying enough younger people die to make the under 55 risk / benefit cost very negative with the SARs CoV 2 vaccines.

So an annual high risk vaccine for a endemic infectious diseases that only kills a very narrow cohort of sick and frail people at the rate they normally die and is of little or no serious health risk to the rest of the population.

Thats a good a definition of public health policy insanity if there ever was one.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 562
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Booster shots

Post by thinksaboutit »

jmc wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:23 am
fon wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:56 pm It's going to be interesting how they manage the booster shots project. Variants can come to light at any time.

Work to target a vaccine on a particular feature of the variant can only commence once the variant has come to light and after sufficient time has passed to characterise the behaviour and structure of the variant.

And even once a variant has been found and characterised, it will take time to modify a vaccine to suit it, then it will take a period to synthesize the new vaccine and another period to trial the new vaccines to ensure they work. Even then, other delays occur, manufacture, approvals, roll outs. It will be necessary to do a lot of redundant parallel planning and development. It's going to cost a lot.

With all these random occurrences, dependencies and variable delays and costs, it's going to be tricky to optimise the booster shots project. They are going to go through a lot of white board space to crystalise all these plans. There is a lot hanging on the booster shots project, the work done so far will feed into it, there is little margin for error, but it will be a miracle if it all works out optimally. Project management is a hard life.
It just going to be like the annual flu shot. Low to moderate efficacy with whole age groups showing little or no positive health effect. Like old people. The annual flu shot is considered a huge success if the efficacy gets above 40% in a particular year. Usually its closer to 20%.

The big difference is that there is a very real health benefit to younger people from the flu shot. Influenza is a real morality risk for under 55's. There are no health benefits with current and any future SARs CoV 2 vaccines for the under 55's. The SARs CoV 2 vaccines serious adverse effect morality rate is around 70x (so far) that of influenza vaccines and although mostly very old sick people are dying enough younger people die to make the under 55 risk / benefit cost very negative with the SARs CoV 2 vaccines.

So an annual high risk vaccine for a endemic infectious diseases that only kills a very narrow cohort of sick and frail people at the rate they normally die and is of little or no serious health risk to the rest of the population.

Thats a good a definition of public health policy insanity if there ever was one.
It seems you are wrong on the flu deaths by age assertion. Older age groups are much more impacted. Look at the data referenced below.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/970 ... and-wales/

In asserting that covid vaccination has no benefit to under 55's you must want herd immunity to be achieved by natural infection, so maximising the numbers of deaths, delaying the achievement of herd immunity, maximising the chance of new problematic variants. Along side that there would be more deaths, and a longer period of restrictions. Surely this is not in your interest!

On the nature of a targeted booster shot, it is likely to be the most successfully targeted one possible. The efforts made and focus on the virus mutations are far beyond what has gone before with Flu.

amanuensis
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:32 pm

Re: Booster shots

Post by amanuensis »

Splatt wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:09 am

Oxford/Johnson *if* anyone is still using them in a years time will likely see annual.
Have they resolved the problem of acquired immunity to the viral vector for adenovirus vectored vaccines?

Or do they intend to use a different adenovirus as the vector for each booster (which would surely require a full clinical trial)?

fon
Posts: 1208
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Booster shots

Post by fon »

Nobody wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:47 am According to Mike Yeadon this is all a big con. The smallest variance so far has been 0.3% and the immune systems of those who had the original Sars, which was 80% the same (so 20% different), can recognise Sars-Cov 2. They are already planning the new vaccines.
Well, I don't know Mike Yeadon, but he has a lot to say. He might be great, I'd never heard of him a year ago. But I don't usually malign people gratuitously, so I'll give Dr Yeadon the benefit of he doubt for a bit.

A virus is a logical mechanism like a clock, that can be studied and understood. It will have components that exactly suit the task they must perform, which cannot be modified much without spoiling the whole effect. And there are other components where some margin exists in the exact form, which can be modified slightly without breaking the whole function and which may even be changed in ways to enhance the effect, and which also disguise the salient feature. So all these variants would have to manage, with trial and error and by probing nature, to find a variation of the latter type.

That's a long winded way to get to the Spike protein, which is its grappling hook, which is likely to be a very critical form since it plays such a vital role in the virus' survival cycle. If this is modified too much, it won't be much of a hook, you can't really change hooks that much before they become stumps or blobs which would be useless.

So it might have been wise to target vaccines at the spike, since it is such an obvious salient feature that the virus can only alter in limited ways.

Nonetheless, we're talking about large proteins with many atoms arranged in a vast permutation space, so perhaps some changes to the spike are viable and which serve to disguise at the same time. It's hard to know what the odds of that are, but Yeadon seems to think viable alterations which serve to also disguise might be rare. I hope he's right. Is it a lot to ask of a mutation. Imagine if we asked a person to do that; change your appearance so even your own workmates don't recognise you, and do it all in one step and do your old job better than you did before...you can see how hard it would be.

It's a big ask. professor adam finn seems to think so too.

https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/1924 ... quare-one/

In any case, I wonder if it is possible to predict, with a machine learning algorithm, what mutation might occur in the spike which both enhance and disguise the protein. I hope somewhere there are some clever people working on that.

fon
Posts: 1208
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Booster shots

Post by fon »

Nobody wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:47 am This has just been a way for pharmaceuticals companies to open up a huge adult market. e huge sums of money. Skip the vaccine or your life will be regulated until you die.
That's one theory, but there is another theory. For example the AZ Oxford vaccine is sold at cost, no profit. I read some simple calculations today that suggest that if a person over 60 catches covid19, there is a ~ 1 in 200 chance they'll die. But if they are fully vaccinated, the chance is 1 in a million. So it protects the elderly very well, less important, the younger you are.

So in the longer term, it will be an annual shot like flu.

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