Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

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fon
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Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by fon »

JohnK wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:00 am
MikeAustin wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:42 am

The first dose rate is currently 32% of average and the second dose rate is 71% of average. One might expect the first dose rate to go down - but not the second dose rate. A better overall measure is the total uptake rate which, at the moment, is 73% of the average.
So, by that excuse for an argument,I take it you would prefer the public to have their second dose before they have their first? Your argument makes no sense.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by MikeAustin »

From the latest Yellow Card Reports yesterday:
  • Deaths to date: 973
  • Current rate of deaths: 14 per day
From the latest 'covid' deaths per day (28 day figures):
  • Current rate of deaths: 18 per day.
These are all official government 'facts', nothing added and nothing taken away.

Note also that the government said here in 2019:
"It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported. Under-reporting coupled with a decline in reporting makes it especially important to report all suspicions of adverse drug reactions to the Yellow Card Scheme."

Occamsrazor
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Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by Occamsrazor »

Just to add some nuance: I am not even slightly 'anti-vax', nor am I a conspiracy theorist. I am however able to understand data and basic science, and therefore know that as a healthy 50 year old who has already had Covid to absolutely no ill-effect, there is zero benefit to me in vaccination, and no benefit to society (not that I care any more in the face of such mass stupidity) when anyone vulnerable, or who feels so, can get the vaccine to protect themselves, or, to steal a well-loved phrase, 'stay the fuck at home' and manage their own hysteria in privacy.

jmc
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Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by jmc »

Mibi wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:25 am SPARS 2025-2028 document: Severe side effects will show after a year.

https://thewhiterose.uk/severe-vaccine- ... -document/
That is my main fear. With vaccines that have gone through the normal approval process time line, 4 to 6 years, more than enough time is allowed for any medium and long term effects to be make themselves known. Medium term being 6 to 12 months. Long term 1 to 3 years. So what we see in the adverse reaction statistics for these approved vaccines is a 50/50 split. 50% immediate, less than 1 week, the other 50% in the next six month to a year. And very low numbers. Its a 1 in > 1,500,000 adverse reaction morality risk with the flu jab. That is an exceptionally safe vaccines. The risk numbers for the childhood vaccines are just as good.

When you look through the clinical trials statistics for those products which failed the approval process, which is most of them, the short term adverse reaction rate (first week) is maybe 10% (sometimes 20%) , with the other 80%/90% spread over the following months and years. To get to the risk numbers you see with the flu shot all the longer terms adverse reactions need a trial period long enough from them to develop, and if frequent enough, that is usually good enough grounds for it not getting approval.

It was the very high rate of medium and long term adverse reactions for all the other failed human corona virus vaccines over the last three or four decades (none got approval for human use, one for domestic animals) that leads me to believe that the current SARs CoV 2 vaccines in general use will have the same kind of medium to long term adverse reactions frequency profiles as the failed candidates in the past. This quite separate from some vaccines using novel delivery mechanisms that have never got regulatory approval in any form.

The numbers we are seeing now will probably be just the first part of the upward slope that will take a year or so to become obvious just how large the total mortalities will be. But it will not be a small number. It looks like it will be at least one or two orders of magnitude greater than any other general use vaccine to date.

Speedstick
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Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by Speedstick »

The Hart Group report states for my age and state of health, my chance of surviving Covid, even if l was unlucky enough to contract it in the first place, is 99.98%.
Why why why on earth would l want to chance an experimental vaccine for a disease of which that is my survival chance!
Anyone who suggests it, or coerces or mandates me to do so must surely have evil intent!
Not anti vaxx, just good old plain common sense!

thinksaboutit
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Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by thinksaboutit »

Mibi wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:25 am SPARS 2025-2028 document: Severe side effects will show after a year.

https://thewhiterose.uk/severe-vaccine- ... -document/
A clear anti-vaxx site. Again and again and again.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 534
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by thinksaboutit »

MikeAustin wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:09 pm From the latest Yellow Card Reports yesterday:
  • Deaths to date: 973
  • Current rate of deaths: 14 per day
From the latest 'covid' deaths per day (28 day figures):
  • Current rate of deaths: 18 per day.
These are all official government 'facts', nothing added and nothing taken away.

Note also that the government said here in 2019:
"It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported. Under-reporting coupled with a decline in reporting makes it especially important to report all suspicions of adverse drug reactions to the Yellow Card Scheme."
But these deaths do not have a causal link with the vaccine do they?

This is just your anti-vaxx position, where you misrepresent the facts again.

RichardTechnik
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Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:01 am

Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by RichardTechnik »

thinksaboutit wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:46 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:09 pm From the latest Yellow Card Reports yesterday:
  • Deaths to date: 973
  • Current rate of deaths: 14 per day
From the latest 'covid' deaths per day (28 day figures):
  • Current rate of deaths: 18 per day.
These are all official government 'facts', nothing added and nothing taken away.

Note also that the government said here in 2019:
"It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported. Under-reporting coupled with a decline in reporting makes it especially important to report all suspicions of adverse drug reactions to the Yellow Card Scheme."
But these deaths do not have a causal link with the vaccine do they?

This is just your anti-vaxx position, where you misrepresent the facts again.
Another absurd assertion from you thinks. Since as Mike Austin says "these are all official government 'facts', nothing added and nothing taken away " perhaps you might be better challenging the government (ONS) and tlling anyone who might listen that they are misrepresenting the facts and are all "anti-vaxxers"

Good luck

jmc
Posts: 392
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 am

Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by jmc »

thinksaboutit wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:46 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:09 pm From the latest Yellow Card Reports yesterday:
  • Deaths to date: 973
  • Current rate of deaths: 14 per day
From the latest 'covid' deaths per day (28 day figures):
  • Current rate of deaths: 18 per day.
These are all official government 'facts', nothing added and nothing taken away.

Note also that the government said here in 2019:
"It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported. Under-reporting coupled with a decline in reporting makes it especially important to report all suspicions of adverse drug reactions to the Yellow Card Scheme."
But these deaths do not have a causal link with the vaccine do they?

This is just your anti-vaxx position, where you misrepresent the facts again.
So which part of the term vaccine adverse reaction reporting systems do you not understand?

And a much more interesting question, why are you so intent on rubbishing anyone who dares quote official figures from official medical recording systems setup under official national and international regulatory regimes. For all you postings here recently you have been remarkably tight lipped about exactly what your qualifications, background and experience is to pass judgement on the veracity or otherwise of other peoples postings. I have a very good idea of the background and expertise of almost all the other regular posters here. No matter how much I might disagree with some of them I at least know that they are speaking from a reasonable position of relevant knowledge and experience. I respect their opinion no matter how much I might disagree with it.

But you? Apart from mostly irrelevant links to news stories, secondary or low quality data or studies etc I see no evidence that you have any relevant knowledge or expertise that might further the discussion in useful directions. Your contributions seem to be mostly rubbishing others who dont follow the official narrative.

The adverse reaction reporting systems are far from perfect. But mainly in greatly under-counting actual events. But someone with some reasonable level of medical experience made a professional value judgement that a particular proximate medical event reached the threshold of relevance where it should be entered into the system. And its those event records of adverse reactions that very reasonable inferences are being made from by other posters.

Because this is exactly how science works. This kind of discussion may be new to you but to anyone immersed in the sciences and its application this is how we always do things, professionally. In my case for four decades and for some others here, just as long if not longer.

If the medical event is in the reporting system then the correlation / causation probability for a vaccination link is high. Because that is the way the reporting systems is supposed to work. Recording high probability correlation / causation medical events for vaccinations. For near real time monitoring and for later analysis.

thinksaboutit
Posts: 534
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Covid: Vaccine uptake among over-50s hits 95% in England

Post by thinksaboutit »

jmc wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:58 am
MikeAustin wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:42 am Let's just qualify the title of this thread. In England as of today, 95% of over 50s have taken the first dose and 33% of over 50s have taken the second dose.

The following chart shows the average and current rate of uptake:
vaccination-rate-20210422.jpg


In the above chart, the average dose rate has been measured from 17th January when the rate reached a fairly constant level. One might expect that the total dose numbers are limited by available staff, which is why the first dose rolled off while the second dose ramped up.

The first dose rate is currently 32% of average and the second dose rate is 71% of average. One might expect the first dose rate to go down - but not the second dose rate. A better overall measure is the total uptake rate which, at the moment, is 73% of the average.

Unless there is a shortage of staff and/or supply, it would appear that people are becoming less inclined to take part in a clinical trial of an experimental procedure loosely called a 'vaccine'.
With those kind of numbers and the very well documented under reporting of serious adverse reactions with system like VAERS which the Yellow Card and EudraVigilance are sure to replicate and as these are early stage Phase III Clinical trials experimental vaccines of a type with a very long history of regulatory approval failure, adverse effect more likely to be backloaded and medium and long term. So when the final data is collated in three to five years time we are probably looking at 40K to 50K premature deaths in the UK due to adverse effects from these experimental vaccines (mostly low YLL moralities) with probably an equal or greater number with serious long term health effects causing a measurable shorting of lifespan and seriously impaired quality of life.

For comparison there were about 2000 Thalidomide babies in the UK of which about 500 survived.

And this is for experimental vaccines with unproven efficacy which probable give only short term protection for a very low general population health risk infection which is a minor variant of one of the most common endemic mild respiratory infections.

So tens of thousand of death to cover up political bungling and incompetence. An interesting definition of success. For whom? Not the people who will die of adverse effects by the thousands. Mostly the old, the frail and those with dementia. But I am sure the senior NHS administrators will be happy. All those deaths are going to free up a lot of NHS hospital beds in the next few years. I see big bonuses all round as annual performance and budget targets are for once met.
Please show the rationale and evidence for your assertions of 40k to 50K.

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