Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
thinksaboutit
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Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by thinksaboutit »

There are some who say I'm not at risk, so why vaccinate people like me.

To me, the reason is:

1. To get the population to high levels of immunity quicker than would happen through natural infection/recovery.

2. To reduce the risk of a new peak and restrictions next winter.

3. Infect and kill less people in the meantime.

What is wrong with this reasoning?

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MikeAustin
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Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by MikeAustin »

thinksaboutit wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:47 pm There are some who say I'm not at risk, so why vaccinate people like me.

To me, the reason is:

1. To get the population to high levels of immunity quicker than would happen through natural infection/recovery.
The population that require that immunity will have been vaccinated before you.
2. To reduce the risk of a new peak and restrictions next winter.
That would be like taking next year's flu jab now, before it is formulated.
3. Infect and kill less people in the meantime.
As for 1. plus avoid mixing with the vulnerable (who should be kept protected anyway).
What is wrong with this reasoning?
If it suits you, fine. No argument.
I gave the reasons for it not suiting me. So I hope that is fine with you.

fon
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Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by fon »

thinksaboutit wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:47 pm There are some who say I'm not at risk, so why vaccinate people like me.

To me, the reason is:

1. To get the population to high levels of immunity quicker than would happen through natural infection/recovery.

2. To reduce the risk of a new peak and restrictions next winter.

3. Infect and kill less people in the meantime.

What is wrong with this reasoning?
You seem to have forgotten an important reason:

4.So I/he/she don't get sick.

Fatcatsatonamat
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Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by Fatcatsatonamat »

@thinkaboutit

There is nothing wrong with you thinking that.

But other people have their own mind and you should respect that.

If you has no sovereignty over your own body then you may as well be a slave.

String
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Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:00 pm

Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by String »

thinksaboutit wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:47 pm There are some who say I'm not at risk, so why vaccinate people like me.

To me, the reason is:

1. To get the population to high levels of immunity quicker than would happen through natural infection/recovery.

I think we can all agree that the virus has clearly been in circulation for a year, most likely significantly over a year. What makes you think there is not a reasonably high level of immunity now in the community, after such a period of time? don't forget you have to include pre-existing & cross immunity too, established at various figures but a reasonable guide suggests 25-30%, maybe more; that's in place at the beginning of 2020, before you start. And as Witty helpfully pointed out many times up until May 2020: "most people" will not get this virus, at all; and the proportion who have a significant illness, is very, very small.

In addition there's reasonably strong evidence to suggest that people who recover from infections develop strong immunity for a considerable period of time:
https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-onei ... le-1133149


2. To reduce the risk of a new peak and restrictions next winter.

Thus far this year, Van Tam has said those vaccinated will be required to continue wearing masks & social distancing for quite some time; Witty just a couple of weeks ago at a TV briefing appeared quite confident there would be significant winter restrictions. How would he reasonably know that now , if he's really 'following the science' week by week?


3. Infect and kill less people in the meantime.

What makes you think the experimental vaccines will have this effect?

WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Swaminathan said they are not at all confident that the vaccines prevent transmission.
Moderna Chief Medical Officer Zaks said the vaccines "do not show" that they could stop people carrying the virus & infecting others,
Pfizer said they 'did not test' to see if the jab prevented transmission between humans,

The trials were specifically designed with a low bar to define success:
"Prevention of infection is not a criterion for success for any of these vaccines... Measuring differences amongst only those infected by SARS-CoV-2 underscores the implicit conclusion that the vaccines are not expected to prevent infection, only modify symptoms of those infected."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... c322315247

What is wrong with this reasoning?

Splatt
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Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by Splatt »

thinksaboutit wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:47 pm There are some who say I'm not at risk, so why vaccinate people like me.

1. To get the population to high levels of immunity quicker than would happen through natural infection/recovery.
We don't yet have any data to suggest vaccines affect that.
2. To reduce the risk of a new peak and restrictions next winter.
That'll happen anyway. Its a virus, increasing in speed of mutation and endemic.
3. Infect and kill less people in the meantime.
Almost no under 50s outside risk groups die of it.

thinksaboutit
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Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by thinksaboutit »

Reasons why <50 yr vaccination makes sense.

Altruistic reasons

1. With a vaccination rate of > 5 to 10 million/month (2-dose & 1 dose estimates), population immunity growth should vastly exceed that of natural infection and get us to a better position more quickly.

2. With vaccine efficacy less that 100%, then some vaccinated vulnerable remain vulnerable. Unvaccinated people would still be risk to them.

3. Some under 50s, still require hospital treatment and this takes resource away from other medical needs, of which there is a backlog.

Selfish reasons

4. The benefit still outweighs the risk for under-50s

5. Overseas travel may require proof of vaccination.

Splatt
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Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by Splatt »

thinksaboutit wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:32 pm 1. With a vaccination rate of > 5 to 10 million/month (2-dose & 1 dose estimates), population immunity growth should vastly exceed that of natural infection and get us to a better position more quickly.
Why are you assuming immunity?
Where is your peer reviewed data showing it confers any sort of lasting immunity?
2. With vaccine efficacy less that 100%, then some vaccinated vulnerable remain vulnerable. Unvaccinated people would still be risk to them.
Why are you assuming immunity?
Where is your peer reviewed data showing it confers any sort of lasting immunity?
3. Some under 50s, still require hospital treatment and this takes resource away from other medical needs, of which there is a backlog.
Some require it for the common cold, flu and an infected cut too. But just like with COVID the numbers are astronomically small.
4. The benefit still outweighs the risk for under-50s
Data for this is where exactly?
5. Overseas travel may require proof of vaccination.
Sadly yes. Its the only reason i'd be forced to have one. I cant work ever again until (i) i can travel and (ii) others can travel.
That said, if its cheaper to get a fake certificate online i'll do that instead.

thinksaboutit
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Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by thinksaboutit »

Splatt wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:02 pm

1. To get the population to high levels of immunity quicker than would happen through natural infection/recovery.
We don't yet have any data to suggest vaccines affect that.
[/quote]

In UK vaccination rate exceeds infection rate, and there is emerging evidence of protection against disease and transmission through vaccination.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-ox ... h-interval#
Splatt wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:02 pm Almost no under 50s outside risk groups die of it.
According to NHS publications valid to 4 February
19% (6) of 0-19 yo deaths were without pre-existing conditions
14% (68) of 20-39 yo deaths were without pre-existing conditions
10% (497) of 40-60 yo deaths were without pre-existing conditions

thinksaboutit
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Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:38 am

Re: Why vaccinate people under 50 years of age?

Post by thinksaboutit »

Splatt wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:20 pm
1. With a vaccination rate of > 5 to 10 million/month (2-dose & 1 dose estimates), population immunity growth should vastly exceed that of natural infection and get us to a better position more quickly.
Why are you assuming immunity?
Where is your peer reviewed data showing it confers any sort of lasting immunity?


2. With vaccine efficacy less that 100%, then some vaccinated vulnerable remain vulnerable. Unvaccinated people would still be risk to them.

Why are you assuming immunity?
Where is your peer reviewed data showing it confers any sort of lasting immunity?
[/quote]

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-ox ... h-interval#

analyses reveal single standard dose efficacy from day 22 to day 90 post vaccination of 76% with protection not falling in this three-month period
After the second dose vaccine efficacy from two standard doses is 82.4% with the 3-month interval being used in the UK. (82.4% effective, with a 95% confidence interval of 62.7% - 91.7% at 12+ weeks)
Data supports the 4-12 week prime-boost dosing interval recommended by many global regulators
Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated

While this does not show anything beyond 90 days, it does not show protection against disease or infection reducing in this time period. It is likely to be helpful in both respects beyond this time and certainly nothing suggests the opposite.

So it is very likely to be helpful to the whole population that under a good proportion 50s get vaccinated. Planning an approach on reasonable information and expectation seems very rational. The timing of such vaccination will also allow much more data on effectiveness to emerge and people can reconsider their stance.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3777268

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