Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

fon
Posts: 1048
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by fon »

bradw4 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:22 pm
the case for vaccination passports is built on sand.
The case for vaccination certificates is as solid as the rock of Gibraltar, and is thus stated:

it is only by separating the vaccinated from the unvaccinated that scientific data on the effectiveness of the policy can be obtained.

Splatt
Posts: 1433
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:02 am it is only by separating the vaccinated from the unvaccinated that scientific data on the effectiveness of the policy can be obtained.
Too late for that.

We're vaccinating people who have already had covid. So cant tear natural v artificial protection apart.

fon
Posts: 1048
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:01 pm
fon wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:02 am it is only by separating the vaccinated from the unvaccinated that scientific data on the effectiveness of the policy can be obtained.
Too late for that.

We're vaccinating people who have already had covid. So cant tear natural v artificial protection apart.
Nonetheless, there is already data from Israel to suggest the Pfizer at least does inhibit
transmission.And data here about Oxford finding that the initial dose of the vaccine could cut transmission of the virus by two-thirds.

https://www.dw.com/en/astrazeneca-vacci ... a-56445809

I think we have done this one to death. brad4w took us on an interesting legal detour with his thought experiment, but both Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are seen in studies to provide some reduction in transmission, hence the vaccinated room is the safer option.

Splatt
Posts: 1433
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by Splatt »

The data for Oxford is incredibly weak. Some show zero reduction.

Even using their best-case data, various people (including Uni Western Aus) have crunched the numbers and shown vaccine derived herd immunity is impossible using Oxford/AZ, especially factoring in more transmissible variants.
And thats assuming you got everyone to have it.

There are 2 clear vaccine tiers here now.
We have the Pfizer/Moderna with efficacy and transmission reductions of 90%+ and the Oxford/Sinovac with 60% or so efficacy and lower than that transmission.

There's a real chance of a country emerging from this totally normally (Pfizer/Modernas) vs others having restrictions lasting for years and never fully emerging (the Oxford/AZ/Sinovac ones).

fon
Posts: 1048
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:17 pm
There are 2 clear vaccine tiers here now.
We have the Pfizer/Moderna with efficacy and transmission reductions of 90%+ and the Oxford/Sinovac with 60% or so efficacy and lower than that transmission.
We have no Moderna and limited Pfizer.


[/quote]
There's a real chance of a country emerging from this totally normally (Pfizer/Modernas) vs others having restrictions lasting for years and never fully emerging (the Oxford/AZ/Sinovac ones).
[/quote]

I's immaterial since we have no Moderna and very limited Pfizer at present. It is hard to predict the future. If we have to give every body Pfizer/Moderna top ups, so be it.

Splatt
Posts: 1433
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:44 pm We have no Moderna and limited Pfizer.
We have 8 million doses of Moderna coming in 8 weeks along with tens of millions more Pfizer.

Better than vaccinating the majority of the country with a sugar tablet that wont address the problem long term then having to vaccinate them all again with one that works.

The data is clear enough now to show the AZ vaccine isnt that useful at all on a timeframe of more than a few months.

We might be ahead on vaccinated people but now dropping behind on *usefully* vaccinated people.

bradw4
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:23 pm

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by bradw4 »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:29 am
bradw4 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:22 pm If that remains the government's position, the case for vaccination passports is built on sand.
Ultimately Israeli data shows that Pfizer probably does stop transmission and infection, almost totally.
Unfortunately we're going for 80% Oxford where all the data points to it not doing so.

So its likely we'll have a minority of the population that cant spread it and a majority who can.
Which is entirely reasonable. My position so far has been premised on the government's statement (from last week) that it doesn't yet know if the vaccines stop transmission. But as more data flows in I'm happy to change my argument.

Like everyone else, I want the vaccines to work.

But they have to be proven to work. Further restrictions should not be imposed on our lives because they might cut transmission. I'm sure fon begs to differ...

fon
Posts: 1048
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:07 pm
fon wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:44 pm
Better than vaccinating the majority of the country with a sugar tablet that wont address the problem long term then having to vaccinate them all again with one that works.
When the time comes, of course. For now, it's holding up:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... rgeon-says

fon
Posts: 1048
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by fon »

bradw4 wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:19 pm

Which is entirely reasonable. My position so far has been premised on the government's statement (from last week) that it doesn't yet know if the vaccines stop transmission. But as more data flows in I'm happy to change my argument.
Spatt is sometimes over pessimistic, it is a part of the Welsh character.
Like everyone else, I want the vaccines to work.

But they have to be proven to work. Further restrictions should not be imposed on our lives because they might cut transmission. I'm sure fon begs to differ...
Well, I'm just happy the evidence is stacking up on my side, as I knew it would, so first I defeated your logical argument on logical grounds, and now I have the facts on my side as well. I could not ask for more! You should practice being graceful in defeat, since I am inflicting so much defeat on you.

Splatt
Posts: 1433
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccination efficacy - ask a stupid question...

Post by Splatt »

Sturgeon?
This is a woman that won't even take a shit without first checking if she can make a political statement from it first.

No academic body at all has said that yet. The data doesnt exist.

The Oxford jab has about 59.5% efficacy (EMA, MHRA, P3 data) so yes it'll have an "effect" as far as that goes.

But it'll be a limited effect with a far less effective outcome than the other vaccines which appear to be almost sterilising in nature.

And thats before E484K becomes more widespread due to selection pressure which'll push that 59.5% down to roughly 0.

Post Reply