Quite possibly the right thing to do would be to vaccinate everyone and achieve herd immunity, allowing us to return to normal.fon wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:04 pmThe theory/excuse is that there is no way to do it properly, outside locking down.I see no push of that sort. On the contrary, Devi Sridhar threw in her towel, today, see twett below.Unfortunately, there seems to be a general push to treat this 'like polio or smallpox', which are viruses with different characteristics that could be 'defeated'.
I kinda half agree with that, vaccines do the heavy lifting, but where it gets through, better treatment might help there too.Anyway, here's Devi, the fallen Queen of zero covid, throwing in the towel for the umpteenth time:it will be in new treatments to reduce hospitalisations/fatalities, not in 'defeating covid'.
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Alternatively, vaccinating everyone with a non-sterilising vaccine against a rapidly mutating virus might present an enormous stimulus for a complete vaccine escape (it has already achieved partial escape). This, along with an entire population with identical immune characteristics, could result in the virus running riot and another 100,000 vulnerable dead.
So perhaps the right thing to do would be to vaccinate only the most vulnerable. But the success of that approach would need the non-vaccinated to have a low chance of producing a vaccine escape variant -- even though there wouldn't be any specific selection pressure for vaccine escape the sheer quantity of virus out there might make this likely.
It is important to get this right. What I'd like to see is some decent modelling of the two scenarios to work out which would be the better approach, the inherent risks, sensitivities, etc.
It is nice to have opinion, but where the lives of thousands are concerned it is best to have supporting evidence.