Vaccine vs Covid itself

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
guy153
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by guy153 »

It's pretty clear now that 3 out of 1.6m people in Germany died as a result of taking the vaccine:

https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads ... onFile&v=7

They died from severe CVST combined with platelet deficiency. Immune thrombocytopenia (which causes platelet deficiency) is a known rare side-effect of vaccines and the number of deaths from CVST during the vaccination period was 3-4x higher than normal.

There's no reason to believe this problem is unique to the AZ vaccine.

This is a very small number of deaths and a low risk, and they're great vaccines. But the problem is they are competing with a disease which isn't that good at killing people either.

In the UK we've had 101 deaths of those under 44 without pre-existing conditions and 542 under 60.

So, in reverse order of fatality, it's under-60s at 0.0013%, vaccine-takers at 0.0003% and under-44s at 0.00027%. All very low numbers but also all very close to each other.

But we've already basically had the pandemic. So what is your risk going forward? It depends how much you think behaviour changes (including lockdowns) have lowered the equilibrium level.

My own opinion is that absolute worst case we could get the same number of deaths again if behaviour returned completely to 2019 levels but probably many fewer than that.

People should make their own decisions of course but it's a close call.

JohnK
Posts: 63
Joined: Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by JohnK »

guy153 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:36 am It's pretty clear now that 3 out of 1.6m people in Germany died as a result of taking the vaccine:

https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads ... onFile&v=7

They died from severe CVST combined with platelet deficiency. Immune thrombocytopenia (which causes platelet deficiency) is a known rare side-effect of vaccines and the number of deaths from CVST during the vaccination period was 3-4x higher than normal.

There's no reason to believe this problem is unique to the AZ vaccine.

This is a very small number of deaths and a low risk, and they're great vaccines. But the problem is they are competing with a disease which isn't that good at killing people either.

In the UK we've had 101 deaths of those under 44 without pre-existing conditions and 542 under 60.

So, in reverse order of fatality, it's under-60s at 0.0013%, vaccine-takers at 0.0003% and under-44s at 0.00027%. All very low numbers but also all very close to each other.

But we've already basically had the pandemic. So what is your risk going forward? It depends how much you think behaviour changes (including lockdowns) have lowered the equilibrium level.

My own opinion is that absolute worst case we could get the same number of deaths again if behaviour returned completely to 2019 levels but probably many fewer than that.

People should make their own decisions of course but it's a close call.
“make their own decisions” is correct. Not much chance of normal independent, top-quality, advice at present. When deciding what to do in my situation, I used the term “political unicorn” when informing the surgery I use. All they said that they won’t offer it to me again unless I change my mind in the future.

jotheboat
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:34 am

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by jotheboat »

That's a measured post. Well done.
(Though, no doubt someone will charge in and trash your figures!)

It really is a subjective thing and a different balance of choice depending on age and vulnerability.
If I was under 50 and healthy I would probably say no - but I'm not!

Splatt
Posts: 1574
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by Splatt »

Pfizer was showing a (slightly) higher clotting rate looking at MHRA but we're talking 2 cases.
Well within background levels for the population as a whole.

Ultimately though there is a non-zero risk of a reaction to any vaccine and there comes a point that your health/age profile for this means in theory, based on pure figures there is a crossover point where the risk of a vaccine reaction is worse than the risk from the disease.

qCovid does a job at predicting but its based on old data - the risks are lower now.

That's why all of this should be personal choice with no penalties for not having it.

If i was over 65, i'd go for vaccine.
If i was a healthy 25 year old i wouldn't.

For others in-between, make your own mind up.

I just cant rationalise this strategy for vaccinating everyone, even those extremely unlikely to become seriously ill from the disease itself. It goes against all my training and to me, common sense.
As with any vaccine, you are exposing people to a very slight, but non zero increased risk so you dont give it unless the benefits outweigh those risks.

guy153
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by guy153 »

jotheboat wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:18 am That's a measured post. Well done.
(Though, no doubt someone will charge in and trash your figures!)

It really is a subjective thing and a different balance of choice depending on age and vulnerability.
If I was under 50 and healthy I would probably say no - but I'm not!
What's crazy is just the fuss being made about the whole thing. Usually getting to choose between a 0.0003% and a 0.00027% chance of death would be filed under "nice problem to have".

amanuensis
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:32 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by amanuensis »

I'd note that I'm not sure that we know what the blood-clot-related complication rate is.

The problem is that our complication reporting system isn't particularly fit-for-purpose. I'd suggest that it is better at finding things that we're looking for than things we're not looking for, and not particularly good at either.

IMO the medical establishment is 'from this point on' going to be primed to report blood clotting disorders after vaccination. It wasn't before last weekend.

To test this hypothesis, simply examine the 'clotting disorder reports' in the Yellow Card database, comparing reports before 14th March with those after. We should have enough data when the reporting for the end of March comes through. If the before vs after data isn't statistically similar then that will be evidence of a problem.

And that wouldn't be data for all complications -- just for blood clotting problems. If this test identifies that there's a problem with the system then it still wouldn't say anything about any other complication, only that the reporting system couldn't be relied upon.

fon
Posts: 1251
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by fon »

guy153 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:34 pm Usually getting to choose between a 0.0003% and a 0.00027% chance of death would be filed under "nice problem to have".
A 0.00027% chance of death is a factor of 0.0000027 which is 2.7 micromorts.

In an average day of life we experience 24 micromorts from all causes, 1 micromort per hour. So taking the vaccine is the same risk as living for~ three hours.

So in Germany they had 3 deaths in in 1.6m, which is factor 0.000002, 2 micromorts, about the same risk as living for two hours.

fon
Posts: 1251
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by fon »

guy153 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:36 am It's pretty clear now that 3 out of 1.6m people in Germany died as a result of taking the vaccine:
The infection fatality rate of covid19 is reputed to be 0.23%, factor = 0.0023,

And a 3/1.6m = 0.000002 factor of dying from a bout of vaccine,

So a bout of covid19 is 0.0023/0.000002 ~ a thousand times worse.
But you need two doses of vaccine so break even is 500 to one. If you think you have a more that 500 to one chance of getting covid19 (tip: you might do, you did when it was rife) then take the vaccine twice!

guy153
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by guy153 »

fon wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:23 pm
guy153 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:36 am It's pretty clear now that 3 out of 1.6m people in Germany died as a result of taking the vaccine:
The infection fatality rate of covid19 is reputed to be 0.23%, factor = 0.0023,

And a 3/1.6m = 0.000002 factor of dying from a bout of vaccine,

So a bout of covid19 is 0.0023/0.000002 ~ a thousand times worse.
But you need two doses of vaccine so break even is 500 to one. If you think you have a more that 500 to one chance of getting covid19 (tip: you might do, you did when it was rife) then take the vaccine twice!
That's a reasonable IFR estimate (sort of-- it's based on serology which undercounts infections by quite a bit) but it's for all ages and comorbidities. I was going by the actual number of people dead in particular age groups in the pandemic we just had and assuming worst-case that the whole thing basically repeats itself.

I agree with Splatt that over 50 worth getting the vax, under 25 probably not. But as you said, it's not the sort of micromorts we would usually worry much about either way!

fon
Posts: 1251
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: Vaccine vs Covid itself

Post by fon »

guy153 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:27 pm dead in particular age groups in the pandemic
We know when we get too old we die, so we don't both profiling risk versus age, we'd have to keep revising it every few years, and that's not how we are. We have ideas when we are 25 and we have much the same ideas when we are 65. We have no right to have the same ideas but that's the human condition, I have noticed at the ripe old age of pushing 62. My ideas are those of a 25 yo., except when I'm walking up a steep hill!
I agree with Splatt that over 50 worth getting the vax, under 25 probably not. But as you said, it's not the sort of micromorts we would usually worry much about either way!
look, if you are 45, you'll be 60 before the vaccine wears off. See what I mean? So we just take the vaccine, use up our 2 or was it 2.3 little micromorts, and do penance of forgoing 1/2 bottle of wine and two cigarettes, account is settled in full.Like Rod Liddle, for some years, my daily breakfast consisted of a cup of black coffee and two cigarettes or two cups of black coffee and one cigarette, depending how i felt! We just don't do micro risks, do we? We just don't, most of us. When I emptied the glove box of my car one year, I found 12 half smoked packs of players... so put that in your micromort pipe and smoke it!
FFS we gotta try to live.

Post Reply