effect of vaccination in Israel

thelightcavalry
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:11 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by thelightcavalry »

Israelis have been constrained and propagandized into mass subjection to a medical experiment with a novel potion with completely unknown medium and long-term effects. Jews of all people should know better. I thought better of Netanyahu. Mike Yeadon is anything but an "anti-vaxxer" (ghastly term) and a genuine expert. Nobody who listens to his most recent riveting podcast with Delingpole can feel anything but disgust at those pushing MRNA vaccines.

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb- ... ce=w_share

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:55 pm
Lockdowns don't tide us over.
Nope. As you strongly assert lockdowns cause case reduction:
Why are you not including the massive effect of a brutal, incredibly strict lockdown on case reduction?
And since many of the cases that were stopped will not occur on lockdown release due to vaccination. hence vaccination tides us over.
As for vaccines helping, we've just finished vaccinating all the people the vaccines will help so from an epidemiology point of view we've finished this weekend.

cant improve the situation so time to open up everything immediately.
Nope many second doses still needed.

Nobody
Posts: 286
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:05 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by Nobody »

Here is another:

https://brandnewtube.com/watch/ex-pfize ... oicPr.html

Makes you realise how sickening this has been. It has nothing to do with a virus.

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by fon »

Nobody wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:53 pm Makes you realise how sickening this has been. It has nothing to do with a virus.
give 404.

Splatt
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:17 am
Nope. As you strongly assert lockdowns cause case reduction:[/quote]

No they don't. You're deliberately ignoring that.
They alter the time profile that when factored over a whole cycle increase cases by the end of it.

Its like going 1-0 up in a kissball match in 5 mins and declaring you won when in reality, after 90 mins, you lost 5-1.
And since many of the cases that were stopped will not occur on lockdown release due to vaccination. hence vaccination tides us over.
There's no data to suggest that.

It's also ignoring the serious illness and deaths caused by lockdown itself. And these will go on for YEARS.
Nope many second doses still needed.
Second does adds a few percent at most, if that. We're done.

fon
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Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:12 pm No they don't. You're deliberately ignoring that.
They alter the time profile that when factored over a whole cycle increase cases by the end of it.
You have stopped making sense. When I showed you a plot of increasing vaccinations, with the corresponding slump in cases, you told me to attribute it to lockdown, now you say do not attribute it to lockdown, so I attribute it again to vaccinations, why did you make that detour and then we wind up back where we were? What was the point of that?

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by Splatt »

Because you seem completely incapable of considering 2 variables combined.

(i) Lockdown as proven causes an initial reduction in cases and a proven spike to higher R and cases over a full cycle than you'd have had without.
Nothing controversial here, IC, SAGE and others all modelled it and Lancet verified the effect in a study last Autumn on global data.

(ii) Vaccination does have a reductive effect on cases and more so, deaths. Pfizer as used in Israel likely has a massive reduction compared to what we'll have in the UK with AZs far weaker efficacy (this weeks Warwick model used 31% transmission reduction for AZ for example).

(iii) you're also into seasonal effect territory where Rt is naturally attenuated by environmental and behavioural factors just as last year.

Ultimately the only groups you can use to see a vaccine effect, even in Israel are going to be over 60s for now.

You're trying to make links of a single variable when multiple factors are all at play. With absolutely no control groups at all theres no way you can pull any meaningful data out of this at all.

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:01 am 2 variables combined.
More than that. You have told me several time forcefully that lockdown did delay cases until vaccination and seasonality, prevented them from ever occurring (hence whatever the R value, those lives got saved), if delayed cases never happen, lockdown and vaccination worked. It's as simple as that, please quit unnecessarily complicating matters, you mug.

fon
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by fon »

Splatt wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:01 am i absolutely no control groups at all theres no way you can pull any meaningful data out of this at all.
Hogwash, all poorly vaccinated nations are control .

Splatt
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Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: effect of vaccination in Israel

Post by Splatt »

fon wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:15 pm More than that. You have told me several time forcefully that lockdown did delay cases until vaccination and seasonality, prevented them from ever occurring (hence whatever the R value, those lives got saved), if delayed cases never happen, lockdown and vaccination worked. It's as simple as that, please quit unnecessarily complicating matters, you mug.
Ive never said that because its simply not true.

We're not delaying cases *until vaccination*. That simple doesnt happen.

We were directly responsible for causing a few tens of thousands extra deaths in Dec/January by locking down all last year and shifting that peak to that time of year for example.
Vallance warned about the dangers of doing it and then we went ahead and did it.

The delayed cases, the increase in cases and health service issues DID happen. Many people died because of it.

Then add on the direct and indirect deaths caused by lockdown (which will count for for years to come) and theres no argument to be made at all lockdown worked.
They only ever "work" if you stop counting before the full cycle completes.

This will happen again in the UK next autumn as we're doing exactly the same thing but even worse.
We're preventing immunity from being acquired in any useful form and making the next wave even bigger than it already is going to be.

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