The new regulations and the expiry date con

The government response / the cost of the lockdown / public support for the lockdown / previous responses to pandemics / the assault on liberty / etc.
Richard789
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:29 pm

The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by Richard789 »

The new regulations for the three levels of panic are now on the links below. Some of us will remember the valuable defence of a sunset clause, a date by which the regulations will automatically expire, incorporated in the original regulation 2020 number 350 (date coming into force + 6 months, so expiry on 26 September 2020). Then regulation 684 reproduced the date in force + 6 months rule, so the expiry date was casually moved to 4 January 2021. They have pulled the same trick again, so our latest expiry date is 14 April 2021. In short, the protection of automatic expiry has turned out to be no protection at all. Any revision of the rules which is significant enough to justify a fresh edition of the regulations, instead of merely tweaking an existing text, gives the Government an easy way to make sure that regulation goes on and on and on, without any fuss.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/202 ... tents/made
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/202 ... tents/made
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/202 ... tents/made

LW76
Posts: 4
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:02 pm

Re: The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by LW76 »

Yup....why are we not filling the streets??

Illimitible
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:06 am

Re: The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by Illimitible »

I’m totally astonished at the ease with which they’ve almost totally removed freedom, and they are managing it with not only the support of, but also with shadow policing by the general public at large.

I’m stumped at the agenda. By any normal measure it looks like the death rate is flat lining. Yes, cases are soaring, but guess what? They’re now testing loads of people. At our local hospital down here in the people’s republic I have a friend that works in A&E, and the COVID ward is empty. She said there was one in intensive care and he had other significant problems. That’s been the story throughout this, very sick people have been dying. They also had COVID, so that is what was registered.

There was a comment that an ICU somewhere was 30% full so PANIC and she found this laughable. Apparently that’s nothing, when it’s 130% full you panic it seems.

But something else is definitely going on. There is a class of people that live in a totally different world than most of us who work in the private sector. And those are civil servants of one type or another.

These people get paid no matter what. And for the best part they are left leaning redistributionists. They already lived in a utopian world where it was almost impossible to get sacked, and NOW they live in a world where it is impossible to get sacked and they don’t have to work either but still get paid.

Then you’ve got the pseudo public sector stuff that is bankrupt. And I’m talking TFL here. I challenge anyone to find any good news in their accounts. It costs 7BN a MONTH to run it, and almost all of that comes (did come) from fares; with a bit coming from commercial rents on real estate they own. They spend every penny of revenue they get, they have a load of debt, and other obligations including one to have 8 weeks cash available in the bank at any one time.

The slight snag is that passenger numbers have been slaughtered with no tourists, and commuting at a fraction of its previous numbers, but their costs are the same.

So you just know that Sadiq Khan is just itching to shit down London again. And why? Well my take is that he can’t actually open it. It won’t re open and support the legacy levels of debt and infrastructure that it’s got. Closing it gives him an excuse to seek another lifeline from the government. He’s apparently had one, but looking at the accounts I don’t know how he’s still paying the wages, I reckon there’s been more done under the radar that we don’t know about.

Now look at offices, things like the shard and Canary Wharf. I haven’t done the math, but I’ll bet you can’t actually get all the staff that should fill a floor up to that floor in in a timely enough manner to do a days work. If a lift could hold 30 it possibly now holds 3. So it takes 10 times as long to fill the floor and ten times as long to empty it. And that’s ignoring emergencies. What then?

So now look at the perceived value of those offices and what debt is stacked up against it. Capital values are a blend of rental amount, tenant covenant value, and assumed demand. This stuff is leveraged, with an individual or an investment fund taking the equity and the a bank or consortium of banks issuing debt to spread the “risk”. In the new paradigm all three of those things are gonna hit the shitter wiping out the equity and leaving the banks with huge bad debt that can’t be recovered.

And I haven’t even started with retail and the bars and restaurants.

So how is all this being funded? We know don’t we children.. we’re just printing more FIAT currency. More than ever. And again I haven’t done the math but I’d bet that on a global basis anyone with the ability to print is more or less doing it. This gives the perception that it’s all ok to anyone that doesn’t think. (Most of the afore mentioned civil servants)

So what have we slid into, and did we slide into it, and who does it serve?

I dunno. To me it looks like Zimbabwe 101. Massive inflation and devaluation on a competitive global basis with huge currency shifts in favour of countries that are more fundamentally sound. Ie they grow their own food; and at the expense of economies that have slid into a position of unproductive redistributional woke bullshit.

And I think that’s what Trump is trying to do. Bring manufacturing back home from China because the wealth transfer can’t continue at the expense of the US working classes. I don’t know what Boris is trying to do. I had high hopes for him because he doesn’t need money. We have the same problem, our wealth is being exported to China in return for goods that we should be making here. The working classes are feeling the brunt of this while the public sector and lefty urban woke are mainly unaffected and just want a cheap iPhone. I thought his ambition was to be a latter day Churchill and get us out of the EU menace to huge prosperity. But I really don’t know now.

Rant over I need coffee.

takeme
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:41 am

Re: The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by takeme »

Illimitible wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:11 am So how is all this being funded? We know don’t we children.. we’re just printing more FIAT currency. More than ever. And again I haven’t done the math but I’d bet that on a global basis anyone with the ability to print is more or less doing it. This gives the perception that it’s all ok to anyone that doesn’t think. (Most of the afore mentioned civil servants)
According to a Minister this morning: the 'how we pay for the pandemic' question is a good one, but it is one we should look at when normality is resumed.

In other words, taxes and inflation will increase significantly. So it will be our future and current younger generations picking up the bill for today's government response to Covid.

jmc
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 am

Re: The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by jmc »

> So what have we slid into, and did we slide into it, and who does it serve?

The answer to the why is now looking very obvious. The perceived very high risk of mass pandemic deaths at the start of the year for SAR CoV 2 was based on a number very widely published by the international medical community, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), of the first SARs outbreak in 2003 that was completely and utterly fraudulent. The published IFR number for SARs CoV 1 overstated the risk of death by at least a factor of 10.

When you read the medical literature and see an IFR stated for an epidemic infectious disease that number is ALWAYS backed by post epidemic data sets produced by large population sample serology studies. If there are no studies to establish an accurate IFR this fact is always clearly footnoted.

The SARs outbreak in 2003 was almost completely in China, 80% of the notified cases, probably 95% plus of the actual cases, were in China. It was the only country that had any kind of community spread. In Guangzhou province. The Chinese government went to great lengths to cover up the the initial outbreak and down play at all stages just how widespread the outbreak was. Once the cluster outbreaks outside Chinese were bough under control the outbreak mysteriously suddenly stopped in mainland China and no more cases.

As part of the sustained and very deliberate cover up in 2003 the Chinese government made sure there were no post epidemic large population serological studies done in China. Because they would have shown just how big the Chinese government coverup had been. You cannot have 8K official cases if say 3% to 5% of the population of Guangzhou province of over 100 million people prove serologically positive.

So the officially published IFR for SARs CoV 1 in 2003 was exactly the same as its Case Fatality Rate. The percentage of very sick people who died from it. A very very different number. You can be certain that everyone directly involved in the international medical community knew this number was fraudulent and the result of a very politically motivated coverup by China.

The why the governments are taking all these authoritarian is very simple. They are now attempting an even larger cover up of their utter incompetence back in March. Because of what they have done over the last six months they have destroyed a good 10% to 15% of the countries economy. For good. That is about a decades real growth gone. It has also destroyed at least 10% of the jobs in the economy. For good.

So the stakes are very high for the current political class. In all countries. Its a matter of survival. They need to keep the crisis going to postpone the day of reckoning, kick the can down the road, in the blind hope an even bigger external crisis will come along soon to deflect the anger of the people once they realize its all been a big con. There never was a deadly new epidemic disease, just a slight variation of an old one.

Unfortunately the politicians will be mostly proved right. A bigger crisis will come along in the next six months to a year. The politicians are hoping that their particular country is not part of the bigger crisis so they can blame the end results on "external events." China may start a war with a neighbor, Xi is getting very desperate. Might even invade Taiwan. The final Euro crisis might happen due to the Germans miscalculating, yet again. The Russians may start a war in Belarus or the Caucasus that spins out of control. The Democrats in the US may go for broke, just like in 1861, in a last desperate attempt to hold onto institutional power after they lose the election.

And a bunch more other big geo-political problems in the offing in the next six months.

This is how real world politics at the highest level works. The devious, cunning and incompetent always maneuvering to hold onto power. And usually succeeding.

2020 was the year from hell. 2021 looks like it will be much much worse.

Illimitible
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:06 am

Re: The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by Illimitible »

@jmc

Thanks for the reply, Ive known that the “information” from China has been lies but I didn’t have the clinical expertise to prove it.

What i do understand is the basics of supply and demand, FIAT currencies and fractional banking.

I also understand that Xi has a problem because he has let the capitalist cat out of the bag now and there’s a lot of poor people that want a bit - and those need to be controlled. I went to China a few years back and police patrolled the streets of Shanghai in regimented groups of 30. Walking down the street 2 abreast and 15+ men in length. And not just one, no. There were 5-10 such presences in eyesight at any one time.

I had estimated the damage to the U.K. economy at much more than 10-15%. That’s based on my own experience as an owner of businesses here and what it took to get them going.

Aggregate VAT revenues went negative last quarter with the next stats due on the 21st October. So I’m aggregate the U.K. made no profit that 1/4, so there is nothing upon which to levy taxes.

Then the furlough scheme numbers. They were publishing these every week and it stopped. I checked it again just now and there’s an entry dated 20th September. Yeah. There were still 9.6M people on furlough. And if those people haven’t worked since March, someone please explain to me how there’s still a job for them now. So as I said, it’s worse than 10% of the economy; probably closer to 25% of the workforce.

https://imgur.com/a/OKLIemB

If supply of stuff exceeds demand by only a few points then prices collapse. So from where I’m sat anything that’s non food and discretionary is now fucked.

I’m looking at banks. If you unwind a decade of growth and get unemployment on the scale we’re thinking then their tier 1 capital ratios evaporate overnight. There aren’t enough grannies to buy govt bonds so you’re in the situation where the B of E has to invent money and directly hand it to the govt. which I think it just did.

Now that cycle has started I can come to no other conclusion except massive inflation.

The euro has been a basket case that’s due to collapse since its inception. They’re gearing up for a public fight over fishing territory which could easily collapse into much heavier aggression and spiral of the politicians wanted it to.

So yeah. Not good. But at least we’ve still got cold beer!

Image[/img][/img]


jmc wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:23 am > So what have we slid into, and did we slide into it, and who does it serve?

The answer to the why is now looking very obvious. The perceived very high risk of mass pandemic deaths at the start of the year for SAR CoV 2 was based on a number very widely published by the international medical community, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), of the first SARs outbreak in 2003 that was completely and utterly fraudulent. The published IFR number for SARs CoV 1 overstated the risk of death by at least a factor of 10.

When you read the medical literature and see an IFR stated for an epidemic infectious disease that number is ALWAYS backed by post epidemic data sets produced by large population sample serology studies. If there are no studies to establish an accurate IFR this fact is always clearly footnoted.

The SARs outbreak in 2003 was almost completely in China, 80% of the notified cases, probably 95% plus of the actual cases, were in China. It was the only country that had any kind of community spread. In Guangzhou province. The Chinese government went to great lengths to cover up the the initial outbreak and down play at all stages just how widespread the outbreak was. Once the cluster outbreaks outside Chinese were bough under control the outbreak mysteriously suddenly stopped in mainland China and no more cases.

As part of the sustained and very deliberate cover up in 2003 the Chinese government made sure there were no post epidemic large population serological studies done in China. Because they would have shown just how big the Chinese government coverup had been. You cannot have 8K official cases if say 3% to 5% of the population of Guangzhou province of over 100 million people prove serologically positive.

So the officially published IFR for SARs CoV 1 in 2003 was exactly the same as its Case Fatality Rate. The percentage of very sick people who died from it. A very very different number. You can be certain that everyone directly involved in the international medical community knew this number was fraudulent and the result of a very politically motivated coverup by China.

The why the governments are taking all these authoritarian is very simple. They are now attempting an even larger cover up of their utter incompetence back in March. Because of what they have done over the last six months they have destroyed a good 10% to 15% of the countries economy. For good. That is about a decades real growth gone. It has also destroyed at least 10% of the jobs in the economy. For good.

So the stakes are very high for the current political class. In all countries. Its a matter of survival. They need to keep the crisis going to postpone the day of reckoning, kick the can down the road, in the blind hope an even bigger external crisis will come along soon to deflect the anger of the people once they realize its all been a big con. There never was a deadly new epidemic disease, just a slight variation of an old one.

Unfortunately the politicians will be mostly proved right. A bigger crisis will come along in the next six months to a year. The politicians are hoping that their particular country is not part of the bigger crisis so they can blame the end results on "external events." China may start a war with a neighbor, Xi is getting very desperate. Might even invade Taiwan. The final Euro crisis might happen due to the Germans miscalculating, yet again. The Russians may start a war in Belarus or the Caucasus that spins out of control. The Democrats in the US may go for broke, just like in 1861, in a last desperate attempt to hold onto institutional power after they lose the election.

And a bunch more other big geo-political problems in the offing in the next six months.

This is how real world politics at the highest level works. The devious, cunning and incompetent always maneuvering to hold onto power. And usually succeeding.

2020 was the year from hell. 2021 looks like it will be much much worse.

Cranmer
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: The new regulations and the expiry date con

Post by Cranmer »

Some interesting theories here, thanks for those.

Somebody asked, why aren't people out on the streets protesting against all this removal of our freedoms?

Simple answer with two parts:

1. Most Brits no longer have any concept of individual freedom and individual responsibility. The last 70 years of 'cradle to grave' social welfarism has seen to that.

2. Most Brits still think the very air they breath is seething with a 'deadly virus' that is killing millions of people (not people they know, or in their town, but somewhere else).

This might sound like generalising but from conversations in real life and on social media, this does seem to be the prevailing view. That said, there does seem to be a fair bit more scepticism around now, particularly after Johnson's U-turn on going back to work in September.

Post Reply