Vaccine Claims

Treatments and their effectiveness, herd immunity, masks, testing, etc.
StPiosCafe
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by StPiosCafe »

MikeAustin wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:45 pm Unless some other explanation is forthcoming, it is a tenable hypothesis that vaccinations caused deaths. Ok?
Watching Joel Smalley again. He's saying, not exactly that vaccinations caused deaths. But these does appear to be a link between the onset of vaccination in care homes and people dying of covid19 in the care homes.So I break that down into different lines of thought
  1. the vaccine gives the people covid19, rejected, impossible!
  2. People giving the jabs bring covid19 into the care homes, almost impossible
  3. People are dying of vaccine shock all deaths misattributed on a massive scale.
Only 3 is remotely plausible...

StPiosCafe
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by StPiosCafe »

Tiers4Fears wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:37 pm 'Covid vaccines cut risk of serious illness by 80% in over-80s'
how do you know those people wouldn't have not got ill anyway - without said vaccine?

I expect this has had a reply. But here's my go: If you take 44,000 people in two groups with 22,000 in each, and inject one group with a covid19 vaccine, and the other group with a rotavirus vaccine as a placebo.

Then you wait for them to get sick. After a while, 170 people get sick, some e.g. 8 from the covid19 vaccine group, some e.g. 162 from the placebo group . Since the vast majority of those who get sick are in the placebo group, then you know there has been a reduction in risk for the covid19 vaccine group.

percent of covid19 group who caught covid19 = 8/22000*100=0.036%
percent of placebo group who caught covid19 = 162/22000*100 = 0.74%

Compare the relative risk = 0.036/0.74 = 0.049, so that's 5%.

People in the covid19 vaccine group have 5% of the risk that people in the placebo group.
So the vaccine is 100-5 = 95% effective, in terms of relative risk.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by MikeAustin »

StPiosCafe wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:38 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:45 pm Unless some other explanation is forthcoming, it is a tenable hypothesis that vaccinations caused deaths. Ok?
Watching Joel Smalley again. He's saying, not exactly that vaccinations caused deaths. But these does appear to be a link between the onset of vaccination in care homes and people dying of covid19 in the care homes.So I break that down into different lines of thought
  1. the vaccine gives the people covid19, rejected, impossible!
  2. People giving the jabs bring covid19 into the care homes, almost impossible
  3. People are dying of vaccine shock all deaths misattributed on a massive scale.
Only 3 is remotely plausible...
Unfortunately, 3 seems to be the most likely explanation. This is uncomfortable to countenance. But, as I have always said, I would like to hear other explanations.
I had no interest in arguments for and against vaccines. My interest was in stopping all the ineffective and counter-productive anti-covid measures. By assessing the deaths in comparison with normal years, I was hoping to show that the so-called pandemic is either not significant or even a non-event. When the recent deaths seemed to buck the normal seasonal trend, it demanded an explanation.
Now, knowing the dishonesties being perpetrated in the attributions of 'cases' and deaths to covid, I am not confident that deaths caused by vaccines will escape the same misattributions. It does seem that the problem is largely with the elderly. However, I now have two concerns: 1) there may be some serious effects on the less elderly, 2) the second doses of vaccines will soon start ramping up for the elderly.
There needs to be a warning shot fired here. To proceed with the current programme when there are obvious concerns would be lethally incompetent.

StPiosCafe
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by StPiosCafe »

MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:48 am
StPiosCafe wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:38 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:45 pm My interest was in stopping all the ineffective and counter-productive anti-covid measures.
yet, by rejecting that people giving the jabs could be bringing covid19 into the care homes, and saying that the surge in care home deaths were not from covid19, you are claiming clearly that lockdowns work, so you need another reason for the surge in deaths, not covid19, you selected vaccination.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by MikeAustin »

StPiosCafe wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:27 am
MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:48 am My interest was in stopping all the ineffective and counter-productive anti-covid measures.
yet, by rejecting that people giving the jabs could be bringing covid19 into the care homes, and saying that the surge in care home deaths were not from covid19, you are claiming clearly that lockdowns work, so you need another reason for the surge in deaths, not covid19, you selected vaccination.
I have always supported protecting the vulnerable - but not widespread lockdowns. Residents in care homes have been well-protected for the best part of last year using appropriate measures for anyone visiting or attending to the residents. That was very effective, it seems.

I suggest that protection would have continued, using the same measures for those providing the vaccinations. Therefore, something out-of-the-ordinary happened - the vaccinations, for example - that was synchronised across all these locations. Are you suggesting that all care homes simultaneously dropped their level of protection, just for the vaccinations to take place?

StPiosCafe
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by StPiosCafe »

MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:28 pm
StPiosCafe wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:27 am
MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:48 am I have always supported protecting the vulnerable - but not widespread lockdowns.
It is very hard to establish the optimal parameters for isolation, in terms of who needs it and how it should be done, since not all vulnerable people reside in care homes. As facts emerge it may be feasible in future to determine a better method than widespread lockdowns. I mean more precise but not less effective. I certainly hope so. We never reached that point,scientifically, medically or politically, during this epidemic, for whatever reasons, although Great Barrington bet the farm on it, but never explained the details.
Residents in care homes have been well-protected for the best part of last year using appropriate measures for anyone visiting or attending to the residents. That was very effective, it seems.
From April to September, the virus remained rare for natural reasons (with a brief surge in October. Hence you have no way to know if measures for anyone visiting or attending to the residents had been effective. In fact even your own plots show covid deaths in care homes/hospitals were running into thousands per week, in the months prior to the start of vaccination campaign. Check your plot, the care homes/hospitals were not as sealed up as you seemed to think.
something out-of-the-ordinary happened - the vaccinations, for example - that was synchronised across all these locations. Are you suggesting that all care homes simultaneously dropped their level of protection, just for the vaccinations to take place?
I saying the Kent variant was synchronised across all these locations.

So, I'm saying what your plots show, the virus deaths surged almost everywhere after the Kent variant took hold.They only place they did not surge is in deaths at home, since people go to hospital when they get bad, and die there.

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MikeAustin
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by MikeAustin »

StPiosCafe wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:10 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:28 pm I have always supported protecting the vulnerable - but not widespread lockdowns.
It is very hard to establish the optimal parameters for isolation, in terms of who needs it and how it should be done, since not all vulnerable people reside in care homes.
The excess deaths of the elderly occurred in care homes - not at large. Out and about, younger and less vulnerable people have been mixing despite lockdowns. The more vulnerable have been more careful. Which is how it should be.
From April to September, the virus remained rare for natural reasons (with a brief surge in October. Hence you have no way to know if measures for anyone visiting or attending to the residents had been effective. In fact even your own plots show covid deaths in care homes/hospitals were running into thousands per week, in the months prior to the start of vaccination campaign. Check your plot, the care homes/hospitals were not as sealed up as you seemed to think.
My plots show that deaths in care homes were broadly in line with the normal seasonal behaviour - until the vaccinations started. So it would appear that no extra risks were introduced before then. I do not expect to stop all deaths. The care homes were no more and no less sealed up than previously.
I saying the Kent variant was synchronised across all these locations.
Why only the Kent variant? Why would there be a synchronisation across care homes when not synchronised across the rest of the country?
So, I'm saying what your plots show, the virus deaths surged almost everywhere after the Kent variant took hold. They only place they did not surge is in deaths at home, since people go to hospital when they get bad, and die there.
They did not surge everywhere. They followed the normal seasonal behaviour, slightly higher but not surging. When people become seriously ill, they always go to hospital - not just during the vaccination period.

StPiosCafe
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by StPiosCafe »

MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:44 pm
StPiosCafe wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:10 pm
MikeAustin wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:28 pm
They did not surge everywhere. They followed the normal seasonal behaviour, slightly higher but not surging. When people become seriously ill, they always go to hospital - not just during the vaccination period.
Good luck with your theory. I'd look at covid deaths in care homes and hospitals weeks before vaccination. Perhaps they are higher than you think, and the virus was seeping in. This getting too much like one of those errol flynn swashbuckling swords fights. So rather than say touche, I'll just say we are confounded by a three factor correlation, vaccination, surge, Kent variant. No way to untangle the threads. No way to prove one way or the other, as Joel says, if you can't prove it, it's not true.

miahoneybee
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by miahoneybee »

A year ago the thoughts would not have entered my head but I agree with your observations mike a. Even before the vaccination programmes began I expected increased deaths in the elderly when they were vaccinated and the figures and charts you present mike backs up what I have thought all along. They are killing people off starting with the elderly.blood on their hands .

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MikeAustin
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Re: Vaccine Claims

Post by MikeAustin »

miahoneybee wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:43 am A year ago the thoughts would not have entered my head but I agree with your observations mike a. Even before the vaccination programmes began I expected increased deaths in the elderly when they were vaccinated and the figures and charts you present mike backs up what I have thought all along. They are killing people off starting with the elderly.blood on their hands .
I expected some issues with vaccinations that were not fully tested - and the only guaranteed immunity was financial immunity for the pharmaceutical companies. I did not expect anything quite so lethal and was not looking for it. Unfortunately, the vaccination programme is the only explanation that I can find that makes sense to these increased deaths of the elderly in care homes.

I really did not want to entertain such an idea. Even now, I hope this is all incompetence rather than planned. Either way, heads should roll - preferably not with a prior PCR test.

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