Arrival in Italy earlier than thought

Reliability of the modelling / how mamy excess deaths are due to COVID-19 / how many are infected / Infection Fatality Rate / etc.
fon
Posts: 1260
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Arrival in Italy earlier than thought

Post by fon »

There is no no doubt that the Corona Virus arrived in Europe before September 2019.
Below John Campbell explains how we now know dor sure the Corona Virus arrived in Europe before September 2019. Hence there were many more cases than were known before, which inflated/exaggerated the case fatality ratio, which in turn gave force to the calls for lockdown. Obvsly, the discovery and proof of the simple mathematical fact that there were many more unsymptomatic cases against the same number of deaths adds to the evidence showing the virus is less dangerous than assumed, hence it slightly weakens the case for lockdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i195K2vYfnY

Splatt
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:46 am

Re: Arrival in Italy earlier than thought

Post by Splatt »

Theres good data showing a September arrival. There's very weak/no good data showing it was before that at all.
Sampling isn't finding it, mutational analysis doesn't point to it, dynamics of spread done. Nothing does.

If you believe it wasn't a lab leak then mutational rate analysis also hints it made the species jump between August and September 2019.

If you subscribe to lab leak (and theres good evidence) all bets are off.

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